Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks on Taiwan violated the one-China principle and the spirit of the four political documents that form the foundation of China-Japan ties. They crossed the red line of the post-World War II international order and led to a noticeable cooling of relations.

Despite strong protests from China, the Takaichi administration has not walked back on these statements, insisting that its position on Taiwan has not changed.

Yet a United States intelligence report released in March pointed out that her comments differ significantly from those of previous Japanese leaders, suggesting a shift in Japan's approach to the Taiwan question. Japan's China policy is moving toward confrontation.

Japan is turning away from its postwar pacifist orientation and the earlier consensus on building a mutually beneficial relationship with China. Instead, it is using the "China threat" narrative more frequently to justify this shift.

In February, Takaichi told the Japanese parliament that China is increasing military activities and has "intensified its attempts to unilaterally change the status quo through force or coercion in the East China Sea and South China Sea".

By naming China as the country's "biggest strategic challenge", Japan has begun to move away from its traditionally defensive posture. It has increased defense spending, accelerated the deployment of long-range strike capabilities and strengthened its military presence in the southwestern islands. It has also reorganized its Self-Defense Forces, including the maritime, space and intelligence units, to improve collaborative combat capabilities against China.

Japan has also drawn closer to the US by escalating major-power strategic competition and fostering bloc confrontation against China. During their meeting in March, leaders of Japan and the US highlighted the importance of "maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait" and discussed deeper operational coordination to constrain China. They also agreed to reduce reliance on China in areas such as critical minerals and rare earth supply chains.

Tokyo also began to downgrade ties with Beijing. A draft of Japan's 2026 Diplomatic Bluebook reportedly describes China not as "one of its most important" but simply as an "important neighbor". Given the Bluebook's weight in shaping foreign policy, the change in wording points to Japan's confrontation with China on diplomacy, trade and security. The draft also criticizes China's actions on sovereignty issues and echoes Takaichi's stance on Taiwan.

Tensions further heightened when an SDF officer armed with a knife illegally broke into the Chinese Embassy in Tokyo on March 24 and threatened to kill Chinese diplomatic personnel. The episode reflects the growing visibility of far-right forces and the development of "new militarism", as well as the lasting impact of the Japanese government's problematic approach to history and China-Japan relations.

Takaichi's remarks and her administration's confrontation with China reflect a resurgence of militarism. After World War II, militarism in Japan was never fully dismantled due to protection by the US. Right-wing forces not only persisted but gradually gained influence, promoting revisionist views of history and downplaying responsibility for past aggression. Narratives that reinterpret wartime history have deeply infiltrated the SDF. In the push to become a "normal country", Japan's right-wing forces have sought to sidestep historical questions while hyping up the "China threat" theory to redirect public attention outward.

In order to constrain and secure a geopolitical advantage over China, Japan is sowing discord in China-US ties and taking advantage of the two countries' rivalry. The US, in order to promote its "Indo-Pacific" strategy and "win over China", has eased military constraints over Japan and supported its military expansion.

Historically, economic crises were the underlying logic of Japanese aggression against China. Japan's persistently sluggish economy and the rightward shift in Japanese politics have exacerbated the rise of the "new militarism". The xenophobic nationalism fueled by an aging population and the ossification of social class structures has provided the necessary public opinion support for Japan's policy of countering China.

In a futile attempt to gain an advantage over China through military confrontation and bloc-based rivalry, Japan has fallen prey to the geostrategic delusion of "being an enemy of one's neighbor". Japan's provocations and the deterioration of its ties with China will not only affect bilateral cooperation, but also weigh on regional economic integration and weaken the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.

Adhering to pacifism under its postwar constitution constitutes a solemn commitment given by Japan to the international community. A "new militarism" would not only trigger countermeasures from neighboring nations but also further erode mutual trust regarding regional security, thereby destabilizing the security order in East Asia.

Japan's military transformation and its hardline stance toward China will only tarnish Japan's national image. The country's efforts to join the US to foment regional confrontation will result in its diplomatic isolation. Southeast Asian nations have clearly expressed their apprehension regarding the region sliding into Cold War-style bloc confrontation. Japan's excessive military spending will exacerbate its fiscal crisis, continue to crowd out investment in public welfare and lead to a worsening of socio-economic problems.

As close neighbors, China and Japan both stand to gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation. Japan needs to remain committed to the spirit of the four political documents between China and Japan and get back on the right track. Only then can Japan contribute to the region's security and stability.

The author is a researcher at the Institute of Japanese Studies in the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

The views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

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