It is widely believed that the United States was pulled along by Israel in the joint military operation against Iran. Israel has long occupied an important strategic position in the geopolitical calculus of the US.

When the US sought to shift its strategic focus to the Western Hemisphere, it adopted an "offshore balancing" strategy toward other regions of the world. This applied to the Middle East, Europe and Asia alike.

As part of this strategy, the US needs several pivots in different parts of the world. Israel is its anchor in the Middle East, while Japan plays a similar role in East Asia.

The fundamental reason for the current conflict is that there is virtually no trust between the US and Iran. Once force is used, the asymmetry of power becomes evident.

Israel is already the strongest country in the Middle East; with US backing, the imbalance becomes even more pronounced. Although Iran is a major regional power, the disparity in strength has led to the current outcome.

The immediate objective of the US was to resolve the nuclear issue. It also had a clear political goal: to overthrow the government in Iran.

However, the US does not intend to militarily occupy Iran the way it had deployed its military in Japan after World War II to reshape the political order. That would risk dragging the US into another quagmire. The country has already drawn painful lessons from what happened in Iraq and Afghanistan.

If the situation in Iran spirals out of control, given its large population, extremist forces could rise and generate further instability. Such a scenario would be difficult to manage not only for the Middle East but also for the US.

Israel and Iran have deep-seated enmity. Beyond material issues, there is also a profound religious dimension, a clash of "two Gods". This war encompasses both secular and religious conflicts.

Iran has indeed faced an economic crisis in recent years, and public dissatisfaction over livelihoods has grown. The US and Israel may have seen this as an opportunity, speculating that public discontent could open the door to political upheaval.

How the situation unfolds in Iran will depend on the internal developments in the country. Years of inflation and economic hardship have further complicated internal debates over relations with the US.

Gradually, a new political configuration is likely to emerge. In the short term, it may remain anti-US, but over the medium to long term it could become more moderate.

If the US continues undermining Iran's political structure and causes institutional collapse, the consequences could be severe. In Afghanistan and Iraq, when old regimes disintegrated without stable new ones emerging, the results were detrimental not only for those countries but for the entire region.

Much depends on what Washington does next. One possibility is a strategy similar to that of the former US president George W. Bush during the Gulf War: achieve objectives and then withdraw. For the current US administration, this would be an ideal outcome.

Yet another possibility is that the US finds it difficult to exit cleanly. Iran's current strategy appears aimed at preventing a smooth US exit. If so, the US may end up deeply intervening in Iran's domestic affairs.

The situation raises that alarm in Asia. The world needs to prevent Japan from becoming "the Israel of East Asia "or the Philippines" the Israel of Southeast Asia" — that is, leveraging US backing to pursue their own strategic objectives.

On Mar 24, a Japanese military officer climbed over a wall and entered the Chinese embassy compound in Tokyo, threatening to kill Chinese diplomatic personnel. The suspect, identified as Kodai Murata, an active-duty officer with the Japan Ground Self-Defense Forces, was transferred to prosecutors on suspicion of unlawful entry.

Such a rare and astonishing incident, along with the recent hawkish remarks by Japanese politicians on the Taiwan question, which interfere in China's internal affairs, should serve as a warning to the world.

Japan's resurgence of neo-militarism is becoming a significant threat to regional security and may drag the US into another quagmire in Asia, similar to the recent conflicts in the Middle East.

The author is the dean of the School of Public Policy at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, and the president of the Institute for International Affairs, Qianhai.

The views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

If you have a specific expertise, or would like to share your thought about our stories, then send us your writings at opinion@chinadaily.com.cn, and comment@chinadaily.com.cn.