Chinese tourist numbers to Japan have plummeted amid diplomatic frictions, security warnings, large-scale flight cancellations, and growing concerns over natural disasters and disease outbreaks, experts said on Tuesday.

Chinese carriers have canceled nearly half of all flights from the Chinese mainland to Japan this month. The downturn began in November, when remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi involving Taiwan triggered public backlash, according to Yang Jinsong, a researcher at the China Tourism Academy.

Yang said the drop in traveler demand is the result of multiple overlapping factors. "In addition to fluctuations in bilateral relations that have fueled public sentiment, travelers are increasingly wary of Japan's public security situation, recent earthquake activity, as well as disease outbreaks," Yang said.

On Monday, three major carriers — Air China, China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines — announced that passengers who purchased tickets before noon that day for Japan-bound flights scheduled between March 29 and Oct 24, 2026, would be eligible for free refunds or changes.

Since Nov 15, 2025, Chinese carriers have canceled a large number of flights to Japan. Data from aviation platform Flight Manager shows that in January 2026, the cancellation rate for flights from the Chinese mainland to Japan reached 47.2 percent, up 7.8 percentage points from the previous month. As of Monday, flights on 49 routes scheduled for February had been canceled.

According to immigration statistics released by the Japanese government on Jan 15, about 348,700 Chinese nationals, excluding those from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, traveled to Japan in December 2025, down about 40 percent from the previous year and about 35 percent from November 2025.

China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Monday issued a travel advisory warning that public security in Japan has deteriorated in recent months, highlighting a rise in criminal cases targeting Chinese citizens. Earthquakes in several regions have caused injuries, and the Japanese government has warned of possible follow-up seismic activity, it said.

"Chinese citizens in Japan are facing serious safety threats," the ministry said in the statement, advising travelers to avoid visiting Japan and those already there to closely monitor security conditions as well as earthquake and disaster alerts.

Meanwhile, Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries said on Tuesday that a highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak, the country's 18th outbreak this season, was confirmed at a poultry farm in Chiba prefecture, near Tokyo. More than 100,000 quail were being raised at the farm.

On social media platform Xiaohongshu, also known as RedNote, users have been debating whether Japan remains a viable holiday destination. One user, nicknamed Xiaoyu, posted on Tuesday asking for advice on whether to proceed with a planned Spring Festival hiking trip along the Kumano Kodo trail.

"I am preparing a 'Plan B' amid fears of flight cancellations and other uncontrollable risks," the user said.

While some commenters said they were increasingly worried, others said their trips in December were largely unaffected.

Yang said Chinese travelers may consider alternative destinations for the holiday period, as uncertainty surrounding flights and safety conditions continues to influence travel decisions.