The shooting incident targeting former US president Donald Trump on Saturday local time has now been officially classified as an assassination attempt. There have been multiple instances in US history of shootings or assassination attempts targeting US presidents, presidential candidates, or other political figures. Four sitting presidents in US history were assassinated while in office, and two sitting presidents survived assassination attempts during their terms. This indicates the presence of certain violent elements in US politics.

The attempt on Trump once again highlights the rampant and unresolved issue of gun violence in the United States. The occurrence of such a heinous act at a political gathering involving a former president, where one would expect a certain level of security measures, underscores the severity of the gun violence problem in that country. Furthermore, it illustrates the extreme polarization of current political strife in the US. The ongoing partisan conflicts have escalated from mutually opposing veto politics to retaliatory politics involving attacks on opponents as a primary strategy. Moreover, this election involves a showdown between the incumbent president and a former president, essentially representing a clash of two Americas, further dividing US society and fueling the emergence of violent political acts.

The response from US President Joe Biden’s camp, denouncing political violence and saying President Biden is grateful Trump is safe, is relatively standard in the face of an unexpected event involving an opponent. Objectively, Trump’s attack is likely to provoke anger within the conservative wing of the Republican Party. If Biden were to continue with campaign activities as usual, it could potentially increase the risk of retaliation from the conservative camp, leading to further unexpected incidents. Hence, a temporary suspension is a prudent decision. Subjectively, continuing campaign activities would involve criticizing and attacking Trump as an opponent, which may not be appropriate at this moment. It could also provide ammunition for those seeking to incite extreme actions against Trump, making it a less manageable situation. Thus, a pause is advisable.

This suspension, in fact, will also benefit Biden personally. Since the first televised debate, Biden has faced criticism for his poor performance, with calls from within his party to withdraw from the race. He has also made several gaffes in public. Taking a break at this juncture can shift the focus, possibly easing tensions or reducing some pressure on him, ultimately working in his favor in the election.

As a former president and the likely Republican nominee for president again, the attack on Trump is a significant and noteworthy event that is bound to have some impact on the election trajectory. However, its impact may not necessarily be decisive, other than reinforcing existing trends. For instance, this incident will undoubtedly strengthen support for Trump among Republican voters, solidifying his nomination, although, even without this event, Trump was likely to secure the nomination. Similarly, this incident is likely to accelerate the return of conservative voters to the fold, with more people clearly expressing support for Trump, potentially stabilizing his slight lead over Biden in the polls, which would have been within the margin of error even without this incident. Therefore, this incident is seen as reinforcing current trends but may not necessarily having a critical impact on the overall outcome. With less than four months remaining until the election, the outcome remains uncertain.

The author is a professor on international studies at Renmin University of China. The views don’t necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

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