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Year on, Georgia, Russia allay war fears
(China Daily)
Updated: 2009-08-07 09:42 TBILISI, Georgia: Despite rising tensions and slashing rhetoric over the week leading up to today's first anniversary of the Georgian-Russian war, top officials in Tbilisi and Moscow downplay the likelihood of renewed fighting - but for deeply different reasons. The deputy chief of Russia's general staff says Georgia is too weak after the war that devastated its military and caused an estimated $1 billion damage to the country.
Georgia's national security advisor, however, says the danger of new fighting appears low because of "preventive diplomacy" and because Russia knows a new war would undermine its influence among neighbors and rapprochement with the West. In the last few days, Georgia and Russia have accused each other of preparing for new hostilities around South Ossetia, the region that was the war's flashpoint.
"But the two sides will continue exchanging bitter rhetoric, and may even engage in small attacks in and around South Ossetia," he said. He said that China maintains friendly relations with both countries and hopes a peaceful solution can be found to the problem. He added that the US will continue to beef up its arms exports to Georgia and train its army but will avoid direct confrontation with Russia. Peng Guangqian, a Beijing-based military strategist, said the Russian-Georgian conflict is a byproduct of the Cold war. "Russia's confrontation with Georgia is in essence a confrontation with the US," he said. The August 2008 conflict erupted after escalating exchanges of fire between Georgia and Moscow-backed South Ossetian forces. The region, recognized by Russia as independent after the war, is now home to thousands of Russian troops and cut off by roadblocks from Georgia. Each new reported attack was followed by ominous or aggrieved words from both sides, culminating in Russia's Defense Ministry saying it reserved the right to use all available means against Georgian aggression. However, Col. Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn of the Russian general staff gave a milder assessment on Wednesday, saying: "We don't see a capability for any kind of aggression." The statement was a distinct backing-off from Russia's recent allegations that Georgia is rearming with hostile intent. But Georgian National Security Council chief Eka Tkeshelashvili contends that Georgia's close contacts with the US and the European Union are keeping the tensions from boiling over. Among the political costs of any new war, Tkeshelashvili said, could be the alienation of neighbors, notably oil-rich Azerbaijan, if Russia tries to gain regional dominance. But if the war tarnished Russia's image, it also raised deep concerns in the West about Georgia's reliability as it seeks membership in NATO and the EU. Georgia's intense artillery barrage of the South Ossetian capital in the opening hours of the war unsettled allies with suspicions that President Mikhail Saakashvili is impetuous and willing to spill blood to defend national pride. Saakashvili said this week that the world had failed to hold Moscow to account for "mass ethnic cleansing" of Georgians in the South Ossetia conflict for fear of jeopardizing energy and trade interests. That he is still in office is "almost a miraculous story of survival", Saakashvili said, and added that Russia has not given up hope of ousting him with forces 50 km from the Georgian capital. Sun Zhuangzhi, a scholar with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the situation is under control. He said Saakashvili would never risk a new war without securing full support from the West, which is not apparent now. Wang Yizhou, an expert on world politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the Russian-Georgian war last year was a landmark event in Russia's relations with the West. "Before the war, Russia was rather soft on Georgia seeking to become a member of NATO. But now it takes a very tough stance." AP-China Daily-Reuters |
