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Asia-Pacific leads demand for new aircraft over next 20 yrs

(chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2011-03-08 21:28

The Asia-Pacific region is becoming the fastest-growing market of civil aviation. In the next 20 years, the region will probably overtake North America and Europe as the largest air transport market, according to European aircraft manufacturer Airbus.

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"Asia-Pacific airlines are expected to take delivery of around 8560 new aircraft, which valued $1.2 trillion," Chris Emerson, Senior Vice President Product Strategy and Market Forecast of Airbus said recently. "The requirement represents 33 percent of new aircraft deliveries worldwide over the forecast period".

The Airbus forecast is based on stronger than average growth in both passenger and freight traffic in the region, combined with the replacement of many of the existing aircraft in service.

In terms of growth, Airbus expects the number of passengers carried by Asia-Pacific airlines to rise by 5.8 percent per year while the amount of freight passing through the region will increase by 7.0 percent annually. This compares with global average increases of 4.8 percent in the passenger market and 5.9 percent for cargo.

At the same time, carriers in the region are expected to replace 78 percent of the 3680 aircraft currently in service, ensuring that they continue to operate some of the youngest and most eco-efficient fleets in the world.

Airbus predicts that the region will continue to drive demand for larger aircraft types, reflecting the concentration of populations in the region around the main urban centers and the need for more seats between fast-growing mega-cities.

As a result, carriers in the region will acquire around 3360 new wide-body aircraft over the next two decades. This represents 40 percent of all wide-body deliveries worldwide and includes some 780 very large aircraft such as the A380 and around 2,580 twin aisle wide-bodies such as the A330 and new A350 XWB.

Although a predominantly wide-body market, demand for single aisle aircraft in the region is expected to accelerate in the coming years, with a requirement for some 5200 new airliners in the 100 - 210 seat category, such as the best selling A320 Family. The increase will be driven primarily by the growth of low cost carriers, as well as the opening of new secondary short haul routes, especially in China, India and South East Asia.

In the cargo sector, the region will continue to dominate the global market, with the dedicated freighter fleet operated by Asia-Pacific airlines growing almost four times to 1056 aircraft. While many of these will be converted from passenger models, Airbus predicts that around 270 new production freighters will be delivered to the region over the next two decades. This represents over 30 per cent of expected global demand for new production freighters.

Presenting the forecast, Chris Emerson said that Asia-Pacific airlines would benefit from ongoing strong economic growth across the region, greater liberalization of the air transport system in Asia and the effect of greater wealth creation enabling more people who have never flown to take to the skies.

"Within the next 20 years Asia-Pacific airlines will be carrying a third of all passenger traffic worldwide and two thirds of all freight passing through the region," he said. "In order to meet the expected demand efficiently, larger aircraft will be needed to ease congestion and do more with less. With a modern, eco-efficient and comprehensive product line, including the only all-new aircraft in the very large segment, Airbus will be especially well placed to meet the needs of airlines in this region." The Asia-Pacific region is a core market for Airbus, accounting for over a quarter of all orders recorded by the company to date.

Today there are some 1700 Airbus aircraft in service with more than 70 operators across the region, with another 1100 on order with customers for future delivery. This represents 32 percent of the company's total backlog, reflecting the importance of the region as the fastest growing market for new civil aircraft.

Airbus' forecast for the Asia-Pacific region is derived from the company's Global Market Forecast, which foresees total demand for 25850 new passenger and freighter aircraft valued at $3.2 trillion over the next 20 years. In the various size categories the forecast predicts total demand for 1740 very large aircraft, 6240 twin aisle wide bodies and 17870 single aisle aircraft.