With only one round of talks left before the global leaders meet in Copenhagen this December, efforts to craft a new international agreement to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions are unfortunately making more headlines than actual headway nowadays.
In a year that begins with about 20 million farmer-turned migrant workers having returned home jobless as a result of the global recession, it is really hard to believe that China, the world's most populous country, would again suffer labor shortage so soon.
If global leaders are to make the coming G20 summit in Pittsburgh an effective response to the global financial and economic crisis triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers a year ago, they should whole-heartedly take to the table the issue of balancing the world economy.
As recovery from the global recession has seemingly arrived earlier than expected in most major economies, the Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers who met in London last week has had the luxury to make "exit strategy" a topic for discussion.
The nature of China's economic recovery is unlikely to be defined by how much domestic banks lend or the government spends. Instead, a sustainable rebound must depend on a consumer-centric shift in the growth model that can address the long-term problem of alternative overcapacity and overheating.
China's shrinking import of cars may have disappointed foreign manufacturers who are struggling to cope with the ongoing global crisis. But a close look at the mix of its auto import finds that it may actually be a blessing in disguise for the world economy in search of a strong and sustainable recovery.
One year but a month after the shocking collapse of Lehman Brothers, the world economy has seemingly managed to put the hardest recession since the World War II behind it now. Yet, little progress in changing growth patterns of key locomotives like China and the United States indicates that the global recovery is unlikely to last long.
A premature change of counter-crisis policies will undermine much of China's previous efforts to fight the global recession. That is why Chinese officials are recently selling hard their adherence to a proactive fiscal policy and the moderately loose monetary policy they had adopted since later last year.
The significantly increased volatility that China's stock markets witnessed last week underlined intensifying suspicion among investors that some stimulus measures like a loose monetary policy may have been implemented too successfully for these to succeed in the coming quarters.
China may have become the largest auto market because of the unexpected surge in the sale of vehicles in the past six months, but its prospects of becoming the world's largest goods exporter don't seem all that rosy.
The stronger-than-expected rebound of the Chinese economy has proved the power of investment as a key growth engine.
The encouraging monthly figures of credit expansion, car sales and trade, all indicate that China's GDP growth in the first six months of 2009 may exceed expectations.
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