OP Rana

Capital game in climate deal

By OP Rana (China Daily)
Updated: 2010-12-17 07:59

The patchwork deal reached at the climate change conference at the Mayan Riviera of Cancun in Mexico saved the UN negotiating process from collapsing rather than agreeing to take measures to keep the Earth from boiling out of control.

The Cancun deal says all countries will cut emissions but unlike the Kyoto Protocol, which imposed binding cuts on developed countries, it has no mandatory clauses. The deal agrees to provide finance for countries that avoid emissions from deforestation and to potentially provide $30 billion for developing countries to adapt to climate change now and up to $100 billion later. The money will come from developed nations.

It also agrees to a new UN climate fund run largely by developing countries, easier transfer of low carbon technology and expertise to developing countries, inspection of actions of all major emitters, and scientific review of progress after five years.

That negotiators from about 200 countries failed to agree on how far global emissions should be cut will set the world on course for 3.2 C warming, 1.2 C above the red mark. Despite that, most of the negotiators hailed the deal as a breakthrough. Perhaps the most interesting comment came from Chris Huhne, Britain's energy secretary, who said the deal would give industry more confidence to invest in low-carbon economies.

The only voices of reason were that of Bruno Sekoli, chair of the 54 nations' least developed block, and Pablo Solon, Bolivia's ambassador to the UN. Solon summarized the deal aptly: "This is a hollow and false victory imposed without consensus, and its cost will be measured in human lives The experts know that we are right. This agreement won't stop temperature from rising by 4 C and we know that 4 C is unsustainable." But Solon's voice was drowned in the din of cheer that arose in the plenary hall after the deal was struck.

Many may see Solon as pessimism personified. But what has optimism from the Rio de Janeiro conference in 1992 down to Bali in 2007 and Copenhagen in 2009 yielded?

Thanks to WikiLeaks, we know how the United States brokered the "Copenhagen Accord" last year after accusing China (and India) of holding the world to ransom. US diplomatic cables reveal how it launched a secret global diplomatic campaign to destroy opposition to its Copenhagen Accord. Hammered out in the dying minutes of the Copenhagen conference and hailed as a "great success", but not adopted into the UN process, the controversial accord sought to solve many of Washington's problems.

Cancun's $100-billion potential pledge to developing countries should be seen in the light of what happened in Copenhagen, because it is in the Danish capital that the developed countries agreed to raise $100 billion a year by 2020 for the "Green Climate Fund". The Cancun conference just made it part of the UN process and, by default, put the stamp of "savior" of the planet on the US.

The $100-billion pledge has been hailed as the best part of the Cancun deal, especially because developing countries under the auspices of the UN, not the World Bank, will manage the fund. But the promise is only "potential" and comes with no specific pledge of cash. So where will the cash come from, if it comes at all? Well, as the US said, most of it would come from the "private sector".