From Overseas Press

US-China talks to soothe troubles

(Agencies)
Updated: 2010-05-21 16:18

High-level talks between China and the United States next week will not bring big breakthroughs, but may help prevent destabilizing breakdowns as the two powers grapple with North Korea and other contentious global troubles.

At their Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED) next Monday and Tuesday, Washington and Beijing will trade views on political and economic strains that earlier this year tripped up ties between the world's biggest and third biggest economies.

Almost 200 Obama administration officials are flying to Beijing for the talks, led by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, and there will be plenty of USdemands jostling for China's attention, including complaints about China's trade policies and yuan exchange rate.

But the results are likely to look more like a sketchy map for avoiding trouble, not a blueprint for solving specific problems, said Shen Dingli, a professor at Fudan University in Shanghai who specializes in China-US ties.

"Basically, this is a trouble-prevention system. It's about damage prevention, not about damage resolution. China won't change its positions on the yuan or North Korea or anything else because of what is said there," Shen said.

"The Strategic and Economic Dialogue is a stabilizing mechanism," he added. "Each side wants to use it to shape the other's behavior, but unless a proposal is mutually beneficial, then we can't expect it to get very far."

Iran and North Korea are likely to dominate the "strategic" half of the talks between Clinton and her Chinese counterparts, led by Dai Bingguo, a State Councillor who advises leaders and, inside the government, outranks the Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi.

"North Korea is the issue that stands out as the most contentious diplomatic issue," said Shi Yinhong, a professor of international security at Renmin University in Beijing.

"But however much they talk about it in private, China will keep public statements on North Korea to a minimum. There's only trouble for China in becoming tangled up with the Cheonan."

The meeting is ultimately about managing the broader strains accompanying China's growing economic and political weight, which has risen swiftly in the wake of the global financial crisis.

"They definitely recognize that despite their new-found prominence, they have a lot that they need to do with us," said Charles Freeman, an expert on China at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think-tank in Washington D.C.

"As a general rule, the Chinese don't look at these exercises as negotiating opportunities or problem-solving opportunities," he said. "They look at it as more a conceptual affair, an opportunity to talk about the big picture."