Thanks to the ruling Democratic Progressive Party's provocative moves since Tsai Ing-wen took office in 2016, cross-Straits relations have been deteriorating. In fact, cross-Straits ties have reached the freezing point.

The island is due to elect its next leader on Saturday, and the future of cross-Straits relations will largely depend on the result. If the ruling party in Taiwan upholds the 1992 Consensus that there is only one China, the frozen relationship between the Chinese mainland and the island will thaw, leading to cooperation and co-development, because cross-Straits ties rest on the Taiwan ruling party accepting the "one China" principle.

The DPP, through its moves, has hindered cross-Straits exchanges, promoted its "de-Sinicization" agenda, created hatred among compatriots across the Straits, and intimidated Taiwan residents into severing ties with the motherland. And given the fact that the DPP prefers to act as a pawn in Washington's game to contain Beijing, it could heighten tensions across the Straits in order to make political gains, as it has no achievements but poor economic performance and shrinking international space to boast.

Due to decades of cross-Straits trade, economic and people-to-people exchanges, the mainland and Taiwan are interdependent and have already become a community of shared future, and any forced separation of the two sides would undermine the well-being and security of Taiwan compatriots.

Perhaps residents in south-central Taiwan have suffered the most due to the Tsai administration's poor governance. No wonder the DPP suffered a crushing defeat in the local elections in late 2018. Worse, the Tsai administration's wrong cross-Straits policies would further cripple the island's economy, with middle－and lower-income people being the worst victims.

When Kuomintang leader Ma Ying-jeou was in office from 2008 to 2016, the mainland and Taiwan reached a series of cross-Straits agreements on trade and other areas, including the 2010 Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, under which the tariff cuts were aimed at benefiting the island's businesses.

If the Taiwan authorities do not honor the trade pact in 2020, which seems imminent given their provocative cross-Straits policy, many of the islands' businesses will see their profit shrink, which in turn would deal a blow to Taiwan's economy because the fate of ECFA would be uncertain 10 years after it came into effect.

Apart from its opposition to the trade pact six years ago, the DPP has been slandering the mainland, claiming the pact should be suspended because, if ratified, it would give the mainland political leverage to unilaterally change the status quo of cross-Straits ties.

Although facts show the trade pact with the mainland has benefited the island, the pro-independence DPP has been campaigning against the mainland.

If cross-Straits relations don't improve, Taiwan residents and businesses that have benefited from exchanges across the Straits will face much more pressure.

Taiwan's tourism industry has already witnessed a slump due to a sharp drop in the number of mainland visitors. Subsidies from the Taiwan authorities could sustain the tourism industry for some time and even earn them some votes in Saturday's election, but that is no solution to the industry's long-term problems, mainly due a drastic decline in the number of mainland visitors.

More important, the Tsai administration cannot expect to revive the island's economy and improve the livelihoods of Taiwan residents who are dependent on the tourism industry by continuing to subsidize it forever.

The author is a professor at the Institute of Taiwan Studies, Beijing Union University. The views don't reflect those of China Daily.