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The Development Trend of China’s Human Resources, Technological Progress and Potential Growth Rate of the Chinese Economy (Special Issue, No. 1, 2020)
2020-04-08
By Li Jianwei, Institute of Public Management and Human Resources, DRC
Research Report, Special Issue, No. 1, 2020 (Total 1755) 2020-3-2
Abstract: The pattern of supply and demand of China’s labor market has changed since 2010 with the basically balanced aggregate of the supply and demand replaced by the shortage of labor supply, as the participation rate of labor forces and the size of the working-age population have continued to decline. The size of China’s population is expected to reach its peak by 2022 with increased aging population and declining birthrate. The working-age population, economically active population and the supply of labor forces will continue to decline. Since China’s technological progress is imbued with a strong internal regularity, the future labor productivity will maintain a moderate upward trend despite the shrinking margin of its year-on-year growth. The potential growth rate of China’s economy is expected to decrease year on year from 6.2 percent in 2019 respectively down to 5.4 percent in 2025, 3.9 percent in 2035 and 0.2 percent in 2050. To maintain the long-term stable growth of China’s economy, the government needs to adjust the fertility and employment policies, launch the system of delaying the retirement age, accelerate the transformation of agricultural development modes, improve labor resource allocation, accelerate independent innovation and technological progress, and increase the rate of labor productivity.
Key words: the supply and demand of labor forces, economic growth, employment policies
