日批在线视频_内射毛片内射国产夫妻_亚洲三级小视频_在线观看亚洲大片短视频_女性向h片资源在线观看_亚洲最大网

USEUROPEAFRICAASIA 中文雙語(yǔ)Fran?ais
China
Home / China / View

New normal to improve living standards

By Dan Steinbock | China Daily | Updated: 2015-03-03 07:54

China's central bank cut the benchmark deposit and loan interest rates by 25 basis points from Sunday, which has been widely interpreted as an effort to prop up economic growth, which has been slowing.

The slowing growth in China reflects the demise of the rapid industrialization period, as well as China's demographic transition. The share of working-age people in the total population has been declining since 2010. Internationally, growth deceleration reflects slower demand in stagnant Europe and Japan, and lingering recovery in the United States.

Policymakers were able to keep growth above 7 percent last year, despite the weak investment in real estate and manufacturing, thanks to the government's "mini-stimulus" and the central bank's liquidity.

And, despite much pessimistic speculation at home and even more abroad, the government's annual target of 10 million new jobs was reached by October, well before the year-end.

But what about 2015?

In China, reliable and comprehensive labor market data is still scarce. The official registered unemployment rate has barely moved in the course of the past decade. Although it includes the unemployed that voluntarily register with authorities, it excludes critical segments - rural population, migrant workers and new graduates.

The surveyed unemployment rate, which focuses on labor-age population in large and medium-size cities, provides an alternative picture of the employment trends. It was 5 to 6 percent before the global crisis in 2008 and stabilized at 5 percent, after the government's huge stimulus package. Currently, it is estimated at 5.1 percent.

Obviously, the government's stimulus policies and the central bank's liquidity injections have supported the labor market. Additional easing is to be expected as long as import growth remains sluggish and headline inflation is at a five-year low.

But the labor market is also in a transition, due to the aging population and declining labor force. In the surveyed cities, the demand for labor has exceeded the supply of labor since late 2012. Last year, the demand for labor in cities decreased by 2.2 percent, but the supply of labor plunged by 4.4 percent; twice as much.

China is not suffering from the kind of deflation that is impacting the economies of Japan and some European countries. It continues to have substantial growth potential for a decade or two. In the near-term, however, the big picture remains foggy due to cyclical factors and structural transition.

As so many times before, the Chinese New Year tends to blur the January and February data, which distorts long-term trends. What is more interesting is the relationship between consumer inflation and manufacturing data. Until the early 2010s, the two went hand in hand. Since then, they have diverged.

After three decades of growth fueled by investment and net exports, Chinese producers suffer from overcapacity; hence, the negative manufacturing data. In contrast, Chinese consumption demand and consumer confidence remain solid, and fueled by strong wage growth in the non-manufacturing sectors.

Until recently, the focus of Chinese growth was on GDP. The goal was to create a strong economy. Even today, China could grow faster but the government chooses not to. Now the emphasis is not on growth for growth's sake, but on GDP per capita. The objective is to achieve better living standards for more Chinese people.

A single-minded obsession with the slowing of growth in China is misguided. As long as the labor market remains resilient and structural reforms deepen, the living standards of individual Chinese will continue to rise robustly. And that's what really matters.

The author is research director of international business at the India China and America Institute (USA) and Visiting Fellow at Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China).

 

Editor's picks
Copyright 1995 - . All rights reserved. The content (including but not limited to text, photo, multimedia information, etc) published in this site belongs to China Daily Information Co (CDIC). Without written authorization from CDIC, such content shall not be republished or used in any form. Note: Browsers with 1024*768 or higher resolution are suggested for this site.
License for publishing multimedia online 0108263

Registration Number: 130349
FOLLOW US
主站蜘蛛池模板: 懂色av一区二区在线播放 | 黄色九九 | 亚洲热在线观看 | 国产精品久久久久久亚洲毛片 | 成人国产精品一区二区 | 四虎网站在线观看 | 日韩欧美一二区 | av网址在线免费观看 | 成人一级视频 | 亚洲爱爱视频 | 日韩色网| 狠狠干狠狠操 | 伊人不卡 | 日韩精品福利视频 | 国产成人综合在线观看 | 亚洲最大的网站 | 日韩av片在线免费观看 | 98超碰在线 | 亚洲精品在线看 | 国产欧美日韩一区二区三区 | 2020av| 天天操天天草 | 超碰导航 | 在线观看色网站 | 9l蝌蚪porny中文自拍 | 黄色片视频免费 | 精品久久久av | 女人天堂网站 | 欧美成人一区二区三区片免费 | 亚洲高清在线 | 日韩在线观看一区二区 | 国产成人愉拍精品久久 | 91三级视频 | 国产精品免费一区二区三区在线观看 | 蜜桃av导航 | 国产传媒在线观看 | 成人精品久久久 | 四虎影视在线观看 | 欧洲精品一区二区三区 | 国产手机av| 亚洲免费小视频 |