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Experts predict further 10% price hike for units in mass market amid demand from first-time buyers

The dream of owning a home, it seems, is becoming more distant for most Hong Kong people, with prices of mass-market residential properties projected to rise by a further 10 percent this year, while those for small-to-medium size apartments are expected to surge by up to 25 percent.

Market experts based their forecasts on continued strong demand from first-time home buyers and those rushing to upgrade their flats, which would offset new housing supply coming on stream in the second half of this year.

Joseph Tsang, managing director at Jones Lang LaSalle Hong Kong (JLL), said on Tuesday that in the first six months of this year alone, property prices in the mass market had already gone up by 6.5 percent and, compared with the same period a year ago, the increase was 13.6 percent.

After factoring in new homes supply in the second half, as well as the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points, JLL expects prices in the mass market to climb by 10 percent this year. Tsang estimated that, in the second half, a total of 12,000 new housing units will be for sale in the primary market, although it will be significantly more than the 6,500 units sold in the first half. But, robust demand from first-time home buyers and families in need of upgrading their apartments will provide enough support for the continued growth in the market.

"I believe a 10-percent price increase is relatively modest and the government is likely to consider the city's property market as being 'under control'. Therefore, no further measures are likely to be introduced this year to cool the market," he said.

DTZ, a real-estate services company, has gone even further, predicting that prices of small-to-medium size flats would rise by between 20 and 25 percent this year.

For the luxury-homes sector, the hike could be 15 percent.

"As the property market is predominantly driven by end users, we expect transactions for mass and mid-priced residential units to continue being strong and, thus, the price growth will be higher than that for luxury residential units," said Alva To, DTZ's managing director for Hong Kong.

Primary projects will continue to be popular among buyers because of developers' incentives and better mortgage terms. Although land supply is on the rise, there's strong fundamental demand from local and mainland buyers, as well as other investors. Thus, the tight supply of residential units will continue to lend support to the growth in property prices, To added.

For commercial property, JLL expects rents for retail space on the city's busiest streets to see a decline of between 15 and 20 percent this year, as mainland visitors have trimmed their spending on luxury items and luxury-goods retailers are consolidating their positions.

The real-estate company also expects rents for office buildings in primary locations to rise by 5 to 10 percent this year. In Central, the increase is projected to be as much as 15 percent this year as mainland financial services firms step up their presence in the city's prime business district.

sophiehe@chinadailyhk.com

(HK Edition 07/08/2015 page8)