Convergence is an opportunity
Updated: 2013-06-26 06:18
By Anita Fung(HK Edition)
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Hong Kong is suffering an unwarranted crisis of confidence, an ill-defined worry that our hard-won success is under threat.
The expansion of renminbi trading to Taiwan and Singapore, the apparent slowing of the Chinese mainland's economy and the increasing sophistication of Shanghai have all contributed to a vague but persistent sense of malaise.
But looked at from the right perspective, these supposed threats are opportunities.
Hong Kong is and will remain the primary gateway for trade and investment into and out of the mainland, the world's most dynamic economy.
Two inter-related phenomena are playing to our strength. The continuing problems in Europe and the United States are encouraging Western companies with little experience in China to look eastwards to find new customers and new investment opportunities.
Hong Kong is already the largest conduit for inward investment into the mainland. China's Ministry of Commerce announced earlier last week that Hong Kong accounted for some $30.5 billion of the $47.6 billion of foreign direct investment that flowed into the mainland in the first five months of this year.
It is a trend that will increase as the mainland continues to open up its capital account. Premier Li Keqiang said last month that China was looking for a timetable to achieve full renminbi convertibility under the capital account, a move that will trigger a new wave of capital investment from overseas, much of which will be funneled through Hong Kong.
And this through-flow of investment flow is likely to increase substantially in the near future. China has committed to relaxing its rules on outbound investment, potentially releasing a significant proportion of the fruits of mainland business success to flow out across the border, through Hong Kong and on into international assets.
Some of the funds will go through the newly established renminbi clearing centers in Taipei and Singapore, but this is not a zero-sum game: their gain is not Hong Kong's loss. The broader availability of renminbi services will deepen the liquidity pool and accelerate the development of new instruments, both of which will contribute to a virtuous circle of increasing global renminbi utilization that can only benefit Hong Kong.
It is true that the mainland's economy seems to be slowing: full year growth is estimated at 7.4 percent according to HSBC's latest estimate, but this must be put in perspective. It is still the world's most dynamic major economy. We predict the eurozone will contract by 0.4 percent in 2013 and the US recovery will only translate into 1.7 percent growth.
The mainland's slowing is a sign of a maturing economy, and as growth patterns pivot away from investment towards consumption, the opportunities for Hong Kong businesses will grow, not diminish.
Here in Hong Kong we are, and will remain, the laboratory for the internationalization of the renminbi and China's economic reform program more generally, with all the benefits that implies. The pilot plans facilitating cross-border initiatives between Hong Kong and Guangdong are being expanded to cover the whole Pan-Pearl River Delta area, a region that accounts for a third of China's GDP; the Qianhai project, which opens a window for Hong Kong's financial institutions to access the mainland's domestic market, is progressing; and we are making progress in improving our free-trade pact.
And our role at a national level is also growing. The National Development and Reform Commission is supporting our desire to become more involved in the formulation and implementation of the next five-year plan.
Shanghai's development is complementary, and should be welcomed. The world needs deeper and more liquid domestic markets on the Chinese mainland, and it will be many years before Hong Kong's levels of financial education, legal transparency and favorable tax regime can be challenged.
The game is changing, but Hong Kong will remain in pole position. China's growth, the internationalization of the renminbi, and broader integration with the global economy are all proceeding with remarkable speed, but these are all long-term projects. It is worth remembering that it took some European countries almost two decades to achieve full convertibility.
We cannot afford to be complacent - leadership is not a right but a privilege we should treasure and strive to earn anew each day - but we can stride into the future with confidence: confident in our continuing relevance within China, within Asia and in the global economy.
The author is CEO of HSBC Hong Kong.
(HK Edition 06/26/2013 page9)