JPMorgan optimistic on banking, mining picks
Updated: 2008-08-19 06:59
By Carmen To(HK Edition)
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JPMorgan advises investors to buy mainland shares as they have fallen to a reasonable level. AFP |
The mainland equities have value for investment after the substantial corrections and the investors can buy equities in the banking and coal mining sectors, JPMorgan said.
Investors are oversensitive about investing in mainland equity markets due to the weakening global economy, and the sluggish sentiment sending the mainland-related equities undervalued, said Jing Ulrich, chairman of China equities at JPMorgan. "Short-term rebound in the market is expected upon the completion of Beijing Olympics when companies' operations go back to normal."
She recommends investors to buy equities in mainland's leading banks and coal producers.
Talking about the prospects for banks, she said top mainland banks will have room to reduce impairment charges and face relatively low risk toward export-oriented manufacturers and small enterprises. Though exports growth suffered in the weakening economy in the first half of the year, especially in textile and garment, shoes and bags industries, causing closure of some SMEs, the bad debts suffered by banks in the first half may not be repeated in the second-half.
It is expected that the second half of this year will allow banks to expand profit margins when the economy slowly recovers after the Games. According to Ulrich, bank interest rate is healthy at this time and growth in credit card business will continue.
Ulrich is also optimistic about the coal mining business. Coal is in great domestic demand while it is in tight supply.
"This represents an excellent value for investment," she said. For example, China Coal Energy posted a strong 58 percent first-half earnings growth over the same period last year.
Ulrich describes the coming five years as a turning point for the mainland. JPMorgan expects the gross domestic product (GDP) growth to stay at 8 to 9 percent and consumer price index (CPI) - a measure of inflation - in the 4 to 5 percent range in an obvious slowdown of mainland's economy. However, Ulrich sees a good time for investment when the economy is cooling down.
She advised investors to adopt a medium to long term approach (two to five years) for investment due to the uncertainties in labor and material costs in the near future.
JPMorgan expects the central government to not only focus on combating inflation for the remaining months of this year, but also introduce measures in preserving its wealth.
Priorities should be given to promoting domestic demand to rebalance economic growth, she added.
Economic growth will be balanced by upgrading railways and this will offset the losses in the property construction market. However, JPMorgan advised private property developers to put an emphasis on affordable housing for the middle class.
There is an average of 1 percent growth in urban population as urbanization triggered an exodus from the suburbs to cities, which fuelled the demand for housing.
(HK Edition 08/19/2008 page3)