英內(nèi)政部不看好英格蘭的世界杯前景
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There is a "high probability" that the England team will not progress to the later stages of this summer's World Cup, a government document says. The statement comes in a study of the possible impact of keeping pubs openlate at night for games during the tournament, taking place in Brazil. Labour said this indicated "what the government think" of England's chances. The coalition said its calculations were not an "opinion" but were based on odds on the gambling website Betfair. England manager Roy Hodgson announced his 23-man squad for the World Cup on Monday, with the team's first group-stage game - against Italy - taking place on 14 June. This is followed by clashes with Uruguay and Costa Rica on 19 and 24 June. 'Intellectual rigour' Because of the late starts, caused by host country Brazil being several hours behind the UK, the government has agreed to allow pubs in England to remain open longer than usual. But in its consultation document, the Home Office assesses the chances of England getting beyond the group. "While England are certain to be playing in the matches in the first period, there is a high probability that they will not be playing in the later matches," it says. "To account for this, we have used odds from Betfair.com, implying that England have a 54% probability of progressing past the group stage and an 11% probability of progressing past the quarter-finals, allowing us to estimate the expected benefits (of opening pubs late)." The last time England got past the quarter finals in a World Cup was in Italy in 1990, where they lost on penalties to Germany in the semi-finals. But, in the House of Lords, Labour's Lord Rosser poured scorn on ministers for their officials' assessment, saying: "It is good to know what the government think of England's prospects." In response, Conservative Home Office minister Lord Taylor of Holbeach, said the work was based on "intellectual rigour". He added: "It says that England are certain to play in the matches of the first period of the tournament - I think we can all agree on that - but that there is a high probability that England will not play in later matches. "That is a matter of opinion, and I am sure that other noble Lords will have different views on that issue. But the use of Betfair and its interactive website was the basis for that assessment." Former England striker Alan Shearer has said Hodgson's squad can get to the semi-finals "at a push". Hodgson has predicted the side can do even better, insisting: "I believe the squad can win the World Cup. Otherwise what's the point?" Paul Waugh, who revealed the downbeat prediction on the PoliticsHome website, wrote "something tells me No 10 or senior ministers may have to be a bit more optimistic". A Home Office spokesman said: "Because we want everyone to get behind the England football team this summer, the government has extended licensing hours so fans can watch England games in pubs. As part of the process for changing licensing hours, the government is obliged to carry out a formal impact assessment. "As part of that assessment, officials used odds from Betfair to estimate the probability of England playing in the knock-out stages. The government is of course 100% behind the England football team and we wish the players every success in the World Cup." The BBC will be providing coverage on TV, radio and online throughout the tournament, which runs from 12 June to 13 July. |
英國(guó)政府在官方文件中表示，英格蘭隊(duì)很難在巴西世界杯走得太遠(yuǎn)。 該結(jié)論來(lái)自一項(xiàng)調(diào)查。該調(diào)查研究的是在巴西世界杯期酒吧夜間營(yíng)業(yè)可能造成的影響。 工黨（Labour）稱這表明政府對(duì)英格蘭隊(duì)前景的“預(yù)測(cè)”。 該執(zhí)政聯(lián)盟稱此預(yù)測(cè)并非“主觀意見(jiàn)”，而是基于賭博網(wǎng)站必發(fā)（Betfair）開(kāi)出的賠率。 英格蘭主帥羅伊·霍奇森（Roy Hodgson ）于5月12日公布了23名球員組成的世界杯陣容，他們將在6月14日首戰(zhàn)對(duì)決意大利（Italy）。之后將于6月19日，24日分別對(duì)抗烏拉圭（Uruguay）和哥斯達(dá)黎加（Costa Rica ）。 “知識(shí)上的嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)性” 由于主辦國(guó)巴西與英國(guó)有幾個(gè)小時(shí)的時(shí)差，比賽的開(kāi)球時(shí)間會(huì)比較晚，因此政府允許英格蘭酒吧比平常更晚關(guān)門。 在一份咨詢文件中，英國(guó)內(nèi)政部（Home Office ）評(píng)估了英格蘭隊(duì)晉級(jí)淘汰賽的幾率。 這份文件稱：“英格蘭已確定在出現(xiàn)在第一階段的比賽中，但是他們有很高的概率不會(huì)參加后面的比賽。” “為了支持這一說(shuō)法，我們引用了必發(fā)給出的賠率，賠率表明：英格蘭隊(duì)有54%的幾率通過(guò)小組賽，有11%的幾率通過(guò)四分之一決賽，這使我們能夠評(píng)估（酒吧延長(zhǎng)營(yíng)業(yè)）的預(yù)期收益。” 英格蘭最后一次亮相半決賽是在1990年的意大利世界杯，但他們?cè)邳c(diǎn)球大戰(zhàn)中輸給德國(guó)隊(duì)無(wú)緣決賽。 不過(guò)在上議院（ the House of Lords），工黨的羅瑟（Rosser）勛爵對(duì)部長(zhǎng)們對(duì)英格蘭隊(duì)的評(píng)估嗤之以鼻，他說(shuō)：“很高興知道政府對(duì)英格蘭隊(duì)前景的看法。” 保守黨出身的英國(guó)內(nèi)政部部長(zhǎng)霍爾比齊（Holbeach）的泰勒勛爵稱，政府的評(píng)估是基于“知識(shí)上的嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)性”。 他補(bǔ)充道：“英格蘭一定會(huì)出現(xiàn)在第一階段的比賽——這一點(diǎn)毋庸置疑——但英格蘭很可能不會(huì)走的很遠(yuǎn)。” “仁者見(jiàn)仁，智者見(jiàn)智，我確信其他上院議員們對(duì)這一問(wèn)題也會(huì)有不同觀點(diǎn)。但必發(fā)和其互動(dòng)性網(wǎng)站是評(píng)估的基礎(chǔ)。” 前英格蘭中鋒阿蘭·希勒（Alan Shearer ）認(rèn)為，如果順利的話，霍奇森的球隊(duì)能夠踢進(jìn)半決賽。 霍奇森則堅(jiān)信英格蘭可以做得更好：“我相信我的隊(duì)伍能夠贏得世界杯。否則參加世界杯為了什么？” 保羅·沃（Paul Waugh）在政治家（PoliticsHome）網(wǎng)站上進(jìn)行了悲觀的預(yù)測(cè)：“或許首相和高級(jí)部長(zhǎng)們必須表現(xiàn)得樂(lè)觀些吧。” 內(nèi)政部發(fā)言人說(shuō)：“我們希望這個(gè)夏天每個(gè)人都支持英格蘭隊(duì)，所以政府延長(zhǎng)了許可營(yíng)業(yè)時(shí)間，這樣球迷們就可以在酒吧觀看英格蘭的比賽。作為更改營(yíng)業(yè)時(shí)間流程的一部分，政府必須進(jìn)行正式的影響評(píng)估。” “作為評(píng)估的一部分，官員引用必發(fā)的數(shù)據(jù)評(píng)估英格蘭在淘汰賽階段晉級(jí)的可能性。政府必然百分之百的支持英格蘭足球隊(duì)，我們也同樣希望球員能贏得世界杯的每場(chǎng)比賽。” 6月12日至7月13日，BBC將通過(guò)電視，廣播和網(wǎng)絡(luò)全程轉(zhuǎn)播世界杯比賽。 |
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