|
China may need more than twenty years to be fully developed
Lau Guan Kim Updated: 2004-03-27 09:22
Years back, some decade after 1979, the positive side for China was it would launch off by the year 2020, and the GDP supersede the US based on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) of the RMB.
Well, at least China has come to the stage it is the world's second largest economy, again based on PPP. But on the per capita basis, China is much behind economically, not even near that of a number of Southeast Asian states.
One caution here, that the forecast of twenty years really has not assumed that other states, particularly the US, are also advancing and progressing.
This forecast of twenty years must factor in China not having internal turmoil or drawn into wars. Once either these happens, it may be even much longer. Here pundits had often, with conservative hindsight, forecast China would catch up with other advanced states by 2050.
A factor seldom discuss is how China going to cope with this status, especially in political reforms, which Deng Xiaoping wisely did not attempt but indicated that this would be up to the newer generations of leaders.
Deng's priority was to lift China out of poverty, and his periscopic sight was economic reform.
It is expected that with the growing number of middle class and the educational level of Chinese much better, it would be safe to embark in a gradual way some form of political pluralisation.
On this last ground I might have expounded some new thoughts. Nevertheless it is worth mentioning, if only to throw this to open discussion.
Of paramount importance, China is asking for trouble if it remains static in all fields.
China must interact with the rest of the world!
| The above content represents the view of the author only. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
