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Vietnam takes steps to head off flu pandemic
(NPR)
Updated: 2005-11-04 09:14 Binh would also like to have a stock of Tamiflu, a drug that can save lives
if given early and sometimes prevent the spread of flu. His hospital has enough
Tamiflu to treat only two patients.
The government of Holland did give the hospital a respirator recently to
treat patients with failing lungs. "But it doesn't work yet, because we still
need oxygen before it works," Binh says.
Those kinds of problems make Binh skeptical that a pandemic could be stopped.
"If the scientists prove that H5N1 [has been] transmitted human to human, then
it would be a disaster. And once it is a disaster, it is really out of our
control," he says.
A few miles from the hospital, in an office at the Thai Binh Provincial
Health Department, Dr. Nguyen Van Thom unlocks two suitcases. "These are cases
of the medicine, ready for when the epidemic occurs here," he says. Inside the
suitcases are precious boxes of Tamiflu. He thinks a pandemic can be stopped,
and says he's ready to try.
"This is like for quick reaction," he explains. "So even the most distant
places we are able to bring this medicine in 45 minutes time. We have Tamiflu
here, 1,000 tablets and also antibiotics and some other medicine needed in
case."
If H5N1 breaks outs, it's going to take a lot more than 1,000 doses of
Tamiflu to stop it. That's because experts think everybody within a few
kilometers of the first cases will have to get the drug to stop the spread of
the new virus. And they'll need to keep taking it until no more new cases
appear.
Studies say that would take several million doses of Tamiflu. Right now
Vietnam has a tiny fraction of that, and it's scattered around the country. The
WHO has enough Tamiflu for 3 million people. It's sitting in a warehouse a few
hours away by jet.
Once experts decide a pandemic strain is really circulating, the WHO would
rush its stockpile to the outbreak. But that assumes the killer virus pops up in
a single place. And "it may not happen that way at all," says the WHO's Peter
Horby. "We may start to see multiple small fires bursting out over a wider
area."
In that case, the supply of Tamiflu could run out fast.
And besides blanketing the area with Tamiflu, authorities will have to do
other things: isolate flu patients, protect health care workers, and seal off
the affected area so people don't flee, spreading virus as they go. Officials
would also have to close schools and ban public gatherings.
In short, a lot has to go very right in a very short span of time. And flu
planners hope the first outbreak doesn't happen in or near a city -- where the
virus would spread too fast to contain it.
It's a tall order. But the WHO's Horby says it's necessary to give
containment a try -- or forever regret it. "I think everybody realizes that it's
probably a long shot, but it could be one of the most important public health
shots ever. It may be unsuccessful but if it was successful you'd have a huge
impact."
Back in Ha Tay Province, technicians on motorbikes go house to house, making
sure every chicken is vaccinated. And a set of loudspeakers broadcasts messages
about chicken flu to the residents of Huong Son Commune. "Make sure your poultry
gets vaccinated," says the voice. "Report all suspicious cases of bird
flu."
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