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The study used a programme that ran on PCs around the world
(BBC) | |
The impact of global warming could be twice as severe as the worst
scenario feared by United
Nations scientists, the world's largest climate-modelling experiment has
shown.
Average temperatures could rise by 11C (20F) to reach highs that would
change the face of the globe, researchers who have run 60,000 computer
simulations of climate change said yesterday.
The conclusions suggest that forecasts by the UN's Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) may be much too conservative. In the worst
case, the world would eventually heat up by almost double the maximum
increase envisaged by the
panel. The IPCC's latest report predicted that temperatures will rise by
between 1.4C (2.5F) and 5.8C (10.4F) by 2100.
A world 11C warmer than it is today would be unrecognisable: while
records show that the planet has been hotter than it is today for about 80
per cent of its history, there is no evidence that it has ever been more
than about 7C warmer.
Although it would take hundreds of years for the full effects to be
felt, the polar ice caps eventually would melt completely, causing sea
levels to rise by 70m to 100m (230ft to 330ft). Coastal and low-lying
cities such as London and New York would be submerged.
As the 11C figure is a global average, temperatures would be expected
to climb even further in some regions.
David Stainforth, of the University of Oxford, the study's chief
scientist, said: "When I start to look at these figures, I get very
worried about them. An 11-degree warmed world would be a dramatically
different world."
(By Ruth Gledhill, Times, January 27, 2005) |
世界上最大的氣象模擬實驗顯示，全球變暖的嚴重性是聯合國科學家們擔心的最糟糕情況的兩倍。
昨天（1月26日），使用6萬臺計算機模擬氣候變化的研究者們說，全球平均氣溫可能會升高11攝氏度（20華氏度），高溫將改變地球表面。
這些結論表明聯合國政府間氣候變化專門委員會對于的氣候變化預測可能過于保守。最糟糕的情況是，全球溫度最終將比該委員會預計的增長提高將近2倍。政府間氣候變化專門委員會的最新報告預測，到2100年（全球）氣溫將升高1.4攝氏度（2.5華氏度）到5.8攝氏度(10.4華氏度)。
溫度比現在高11攝氏度的地球將變的面目全非。雖然有記錄顯示在歷史上80%的時間里，地球表面的溫度都比現在高，但從沒有比現在高出7攝氏度的。
雖然要幾百年時間才能感受到升溫對各方面的影響，極地冰帽最終將完全融化，使海平面升高70到80米（230到330英尺）。倫敦、紐約等沿海和低洼城市將被海水淹沒。
（升溫）11攝氏度僅是全球的平均數字，在局部地區升溫幅度將更大。
牛津大學負責該項研究的科學家大衛·斯坦福斯說：“當我開始研究這些數據時，我非常擔憂。溫度比現在高11度的地球將是一個完全不同的世界。”
（中國日報網站譯） |
Updated: 2005-01-28 10:34