US investment firm upbeat on three main portals
( 2003-09-23 10:10) (China Daily)
Editor's note: The following are excerpts from reports made by US Bancorp Piper Jaffray on the performance and prospects of NetEase.com Inc, Sina Corp, and Sohu.com Inc in July.
NetEase
Advertising Strength. The outperformance in the second quarter was driven by upside in advertising revenues, which grew 74 per cent quarter-on-quarter to US$2.5 million, well ahead of our US$1.4 million estimate, as well as strong short messaging service (SMS) revenues.
We believe online advertising in China is seeing an acceleration in growth rate, driven by the rapidly increasing Internet population as well as increased advertiser interest in reaching the young population, especially for electronics products. We also believe NetEase can grow ad revenues faster than other portals as it currently has a disproportionately small ad revenue base.
Gaming Growth Resumes. Despite the flat growth of last quarter caused by SARS, we expect NetEase to grow through this bump. As management indicated, July was the best revenue month ever for its gaming business and it expects sequential gaming revenue growth of at least 35 per cent.
SMS Revenues Solid. Little Impact from dropping affiliates. SMS revenues grew by 16 per cent sequentially to over US$8 million, and we expect 10 per cent sequential growth in Q3. The company indicated that it has ended its affiliate subscriber acquisition channel but that it didn't expect much impact on Q3 growth (as the affiliate channel was a small source of subscriber acquisition).
Estimate Revisions. We are increasing our 2003 revenue estimate from US$64.2 million to US$69.5 million and estimated earnings per share (EPS) from US$1.08 to US$1.22. We are also increasing 2004 revenue estimate from US$98.5 million to US$115.4 million and EPS from US$1.29 to US$1.77.
Risks to Achievement of Target Price. Risks include margin contraction, exposure to wireless carriers, competition, government regulation and corporate structure.
Sina
Across The Board Strength. We believe Sina has catalysts including the introduction of gaming revenue and the acceleration of paid search, which we believe will prove to be a large opportunity.
While our model assumes over 50 per cent growth in 2004, we believe our estimates may prove conservative, especially if catalysts such as gaming and search bear fruit.
No SMS Impact from Web Affiliates. Unlike Sohu, Sina did not have measurable subscriber acquisition from affiliates and, as such, was not impacted by China Mobile's decision to ask the portals to discontinue that acquisition channel.
Estimate Revisions. We are increasing our 2003 revenue estimates from US$99.6 million to US$105.5 million and EPS from US$0.56 to US$0.59. For 2004, our revenue estimates increase from US$149.1 million to US$161.4 million and our EPS estimates increase from US$0.81 to US$0.98.
Still in Early Stages of Growth. We believe Sina is still at a very early stage of market growth driven by an expected increase in Internet users' usage from 68 million to nearly 200 million by 2007.
Sohu
Business Momentum Remains Strong. Sohu.com's business momentum remains strong, with plenty of potential catalysts to drive upside to our estimates.
Advertising revenues posted a fifth consecutive quarter of year-on-year growth acceleration, and the mid-point of the company's guidance range suggests the company will see further acceleration in Q3. While SMS revenues will likely experience a hiccup in Q3 due to a dropping of an affiliate customer acquisition channel, we believe the company's guidance contemplates a conservative scenario and we expect continued solid growth over the next three quarters.
Key Growth Areas To Watch. Advertising revenues are on a strong growth path with over 350 advertisers while the company is also monetizing its nascent paid search directory efforts with over 40,000 small businesses - a size that is comparable to Overture's business advertiser count several years into its operation.
Online gaming, while delayed by a few months because of SARS, is on track to be launched in Q3 and could be meaningful by Q4. Finally, we
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