OPINION> Commentary
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OPINION> Commentary
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Four new ways for Detroit to save its future
By Sebastian Thrun and Anthony Levandowski
Updated: 2009-01-08 07:41 These days, as we contemplate the future of the automotive industry, we would do well to remember the words of Henry Ford: "Failure is the opportunity to begin again more intelligently." For Detroit, there is plenty of failure. But there are also plenty of opportunities to begin again. In fact, there are many new technologies to make cars safer, cheaper, cleaner and more convenient. All these could be adopted by the automobile industry in the near future and without too much trouble. Here are just four technologies that could be put on the road in the next several years. These technologies - some of which we invest in - are win-wins. They have the potential to improve energy efficiency, cut down on accidents, reduce pollution and make commuting more convenient. They might even help put the US car industry back in the driver's seat. Soon a car will be more intelligent about the traffic ahead of it. It will warn us of sudden slowdowns and coming emergency vehicles. Driving in dense fog will be safer because a car will simply tell us where nearby cars are - even if they aren't visible. At intersections, our car could warn us about other vehicles approaching. The technology to make this happen is called "dedicated short-range communication". It works like WiFi. Cars form ad-hoc wireless networks with one another - and with, say, traffic lights and other roadway infrastructure - to communicate critical information. Short-range communication technology could significantly reduce the nearly 6 million traffic accidents that take place in the United States every year, perhaps by as much as 30 percent. After all, more than 95 percent of all traffic accidents are caused by human error. The safety precautions could translate into 12,000 lives saved annually. The technology could also make drive-by electronic payments easier - so no more highway tollbooths or pay stations in parking garages. Over the years, the US has invested hundreds of billions in mass transit: trains, buses and subways. Yet with all these investments, less than 1 percent of the population uses mass transit to get to work.
The car of the future will bring the convenience of riding a train to the highway. Universities and car companies are developing robotic cars that can drive in tight formation under computer control. This is not that far-fetched. Most new cars already use computers to assist in steering, shifting and braking. And some rely on cameras and radar to sense lane markings and oncoming traffic. On the highway train of tomorrow, cars might be able to drive with robotic precision while we sit behind the wheel and relax. This new way of driving will reduce congestion, because robotic cars can drive much closer together, improving traffic flow. It could also improve fuel consumption by up to 20 percent through reduced air drag. Moreover, it could make commuting infinitely more convenient, enabling us to, say, send e-mail messages, without endangering everyone else on the road. Solar-electric hybrids may be the next logical step after plug-in hybrids. Vehicles covered with photovoltaic cells are up to 20 percent more fuel-efficient than plug-ins. But the real power will come from solar charging stations in our homes or on the power grid. Solar panels on a single garage in even a northern state can capture enough sunlight in a year to power more than 16,000 km of driving. And if waiting for the batteries to charge is not an option, a number of companies are well on the way to developing ways to make battery-exchange easier. The solar-electric hybrid would certainly help reduce our dependence on foreign oil. Nearly 70 percent of the petroleum we use goes into transportation; a nationwide deployment of solar-hybrid technology would reduce that number. Speaking of commuting: We should expect the growing solar energy industry to create lots of new jobs for people to go to. Like the rest of the world, cars will go online. Companies are working to equip parking spots with sensors to report open spaces, helping drivers to save time and fuel. Other companies are working on in-car technologies for making restaurant reservations or placing takeout orders. In the near future, we should be able to purchase songs we hear on the radio when we're driving, or find friends or family members with a click of a button. Online services like these are already available on smart phones. They are largely absent in cars. Automobile manufacturers could open up dashboards to third-party suppliers, encouraging new businesses. Just as the Internet has revolutionized broadcast media, a truly open online car could utterly transform the driving experience. Sebastian Thrun is a professor of computer science at Stanford, and Anthony Levandowski is a product manager at Google The New York Times Syndicate (China Daily 01/08/2009 page9) |
