Stocks dive, then rebound after Fed cut
Updated: 2008-01-23 09:02
The Dow is down nearly 10 percent since the beginning of the year -- logging its worst first 14 trading days of the year ever. It is down more than 15 percent since its record close of 14,164.53 on Oct. 9, and is at its lowest close since Oct. 17, 2006.
Investors are well aware that housing worries remain: Many adjustable-rate mortgages -- similar to those that went bad last year -- will still be adjusted higher, and home prices are expected to keep falling this year.
Financial companies have lost billions of dollars because of those mortgages, retail sales are falling and companies in general aren't on a spending spree.
Investors, both institutional and individual, are also in a defensive mode, and an interest cut won't immediately change that. In the week ended Jan. 15, when many on Wall Street believed a rate cut was in the offing, investors shoveled money into cash reserves at a record pace, according to iMoneyNet. Assets in money market funds ballooned by $15.96 billion to a high of $3.17 trillion.
And investors pulled an estimated $18.2 billion out of mutual funds, according to TrimTabs Investment Research. So far this year, investors have shifted $41.4 billion out of these investments.
Richard Resch, a 60-year-old salesman at a steamship company, said he met two nights ago with his financial planner to rebalance his money from an 80-20 split in stocks and bonds to a more conservative 50-50 split. His planner told him to hang in there.
"There's no point in panicking now," said Resch, who lives in Long Valley, N.J. "If you see me jump out of a window six months from now, you'll know I was wrong."
For the market to truly gain a foothold, investors need to see strong economic and earnings data in the coming months, including earnings reports and forecasts this week from big multinational companies like Microsoft Corp., AT&T Inc., Caterpillar Inc. and Honeywell International Inc.
The market also needs to hear that financial institutions like Citigroup Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co., which have lost billions due to investments in failed mortgages, are on their way to solid earnings as well.
"If that doesn't happen, then all this is a short-term bottom before a resumption of selling," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak.
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