The situation on the Korean Peninsula has always been a common concern of China and the United States. The Peninsula situation somewhat eased at the end of 2011, with the relationship between the US and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) gradually improving and the Republic of Korea (ROK) lowering its threshold to hold dialogue with the DPRK. But the unexpected death of the DPRK's leader Kim Jong-il has created new riddles.

Though Pyongyang will continue to follow the guidelines of Kim Jong-il and stick to the Juche Idea (which means the DPRK people are the masters of the country's development) and songun (or military-first policy), its short-term focus on economic construction will not change.

The New Year's joint editorial in the DPRK's leading newspapers put light industries on the front lines of an all-out offense, laying emphasis on solving the food problem to improve the lives of the people. The Cabinet plenary meeting in January also set development of the light industry and agriculture as the priority for 2012. Besides, this year marks the 100th birth anniversary of the DPRK's late leader Kim Il-sung and 70th birthday of Kim Jong-il, and is also the most crucial for building a powerful and prosperous nation.

But Pyongyang still has a lot more to do to prop up its economy.

Based on this understanding, Yang Hyong Sop, vice-president of the Presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly, said the DPRK's new leader was focused on a "knowledge-based" economy and looking at economic reforms enacted by other nations, including China. Yang, also a member of the Korean Workers' Party Politburo, provided the first confirmation that Kim Jong-un would eventually become the country's next leader. His remarks also suggest that Pyongyang may adopt a policy of opening-up in the future.

Opening-up is a world trend. The only problem for a country is to decide when and how to open up. After consolidating power, Kim Jong-un may earmark certain zones for opening-up, where instead of exercising strict control on the economy, the DPRK authorities would support private economy, and offer preferential policies to foreign companies and free access to the Internet.

An economically prosperous and socially stable DPRK would suit the interests of its neighboring countries. In turn, the neighboring countries should take the initiative to strengthen exchanges and cooperation with the DPRK to prompt it to embark on the road of opening-up, and absorb foreign capital and advanced technology to accelerate the development of the Rason Economic and Trade Zone and the Hwanggumphyong-Wihwa Islands Economic Zone, jointly developed by the DPRK and China, and the Kaesong Industrial Complex, which have suffered because of rising tensions on the Peninsula.

If the US and the ROK still use their military power as a deterrence against the DPRK and deliberately create tensions on the Korean Peninsula, it will give further reason to Pyongyang to strengthen its military-first strategy and respond likewise, which would threaten regional peace and stability.

In contrast, maintaining peace and stability on the Peninsula would help the DPRK implement an opening-up policy. Once Pyongyang embarks on the road of reform and opening-up, people in the DPRK can enjoy the fruits of economic reform and hard-won peaceful environment, which would greatly reduce the possibility of an inter-Korean military conflict and bring the nuclear issue to a peaceful end.

Therefore, an effective way of transforming the situation for the better is not to politically and diplomatically isolate the DPRK by imposing more economic sanctions on it but to create a peaceful external environment and reduce the pressure on the new government.

China can play the role of coordinator and urge relevant countries to return to the Six-Party Talks to resolve the DPRK nuclear issue peacefully and actively support the development of the two economic zones mentioned above.

The DPRK needs to size up the situation, take the historic opportunity to suspend its uranium enrichment program, stop criticizing the ROK government, improve its investment environment and strictly abide by all bilateral and multilateral agreements.

It's high time that Seoul, too, gave up its hard-line policy toward Pyongyang, stopped its military exercises and media assaults against its northern neighbor, and ceased distribution of cross-border leaflets. If the ROK lifted economic sanctions, developed inter-Korean trade and economic relations, expanded non-governmental exchanges and communication, then Seoul and Pyongyang could promote national reconciliation and make the cooperation process smoother. The US plays a dominant role on the Korean Peninsula. So unless it abandons the illusion of subverting the DPRK government, the right conditions for the DPRK's integration into the international community cannot be created, and military confrontation on the Peninsula cannot be completely eliminated to restore real peace and stability in Northeast Asia.

The author is an assistant research scholar at the Center for Northeast Asian Studies, a research institution in Jilin province.

(China Daily 02/16/2012 page9)