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Objective and Indicator System for Building a Well-off Society in an All-round Way (Excerpts)
2004-06-01
Li Shantong, Hou Yongzhi, Sun Zhiyan & Feng Jie
Building a well-off society in an all-round way is a development stage with decisive significance in the third strategic stage in the modernization drive. The objective and indicator system for building a well-off society in an all-round way should be characterized by its comprehensiveness. Therefore, we suggest that building a well-off society in an all-round way include 16 indicators respectively in economy, society, environment and institution. The basis for determining such indicators and their range of values are described respectively as follows:
I. Economic Subjects
1. Per capita GDP
It is suggested that the objective of per capita GDP for building a well-off society in an all-round way be set at 25,000 yuan. With a view to the factors such as inflation and the change of value of US dollar, the per capita GDP in 2020 may be between $ 4,000 to 5,000.
2. Proportion of employment in non-agricultural sectors
According to international experience, the employment proportion in non-agricultural sectors can be about 60% when per capita GDP reaches $ 3,000. It is estimated that the employment proportion in non-agricultural sectors in China can be over 60% by 2020.
3.Engel coefficient
According to international experience, the Engel coefficient for the consumption of urban residents would be under 30% and the Engel coefficient for the consumption of farmers would be under 40% respectively by 2020. The Engel coefficient for the consumption of one fifth of the people with the lowest income would be 50% by 2020.
4. Income of urban and rural residents (including per capita disposable income of urban residents and per capita net income of rural residents)
By 2020 when the GDP is quadrupled, the per capita disposable income of urban residents will be about 3 times that of 2000, being 20,000 yuan when calculated at fixed price of 2000, and the per capita net income of rural residents will be about 3.5 times that of 2000, being 8,000 yuan when calculated at fixed price of 2000. The ratio of income of urban residents to that of rural residents will be lowered from 2.8:1 in 2000 to about 2.5:1 in 2020.
II. Social Subjects
1. Gini coefficient
The Gini coefficient in China will drop below 0.4 by the year 2020.
2. Coverage of basic social insurance
By the year 2020, the coverage of basic social insurance should reach 100%.
3. Average period of education
By 2020, the average education period for population above 6 years of age should be 10 years.
4. Expected life span
It is expected that the expected life span of the people in China would be 75 years by 2020.
5. Proportion of added value in culture, education, sports and public health
In 2000, the proportion of added value of culture, education, sports and public health occupied 3.6% of total GDP and the proportion of added value of culture, education, sports and public health in GDP would account for 10% of GDP by 2020.
6. Crime rate
In 2000, there were 29 criminal cases filed at the public security organs for every 10,000 people by average in China, and this figure would fall below 15 cases per 10,000 people by 2020.
7. Proportion of population with daily average consumption expenditure less than 5 yuan
In line with the requirement of building a well-off society in an all-round way, the daily average consumption expenditure of population in poverty should be no less than 5 yuan as calculated at the present price. Therefore, it is presumed that the proportion of population with daily average consumption expenditure of less than 5 yuan would fall to 0 by the year 2020.
III. Environmental Subjects
1. Energy utilizing efficiency
Based on the price of 2000, in 2020, the output per kg of coal equivalent in China can be 20 yuan (equivalent to $ 2.4), about the present world average level.
2. Proportion of population using improved water sources (or popularization of safe and sanitary water)
According to the requirement of building a well-off society in an all-round way in China, the popularization of safe and sanitary water for urban and rural residents should be 100% in 2020.
3. Comprehensive index of environmental pollution
The comprehensive index of environmental pollution is an indication of environmental quality by integrating various pollution conditions of atmosphere, water quality and noise. At present, relevant institutions in China are studying the calculation method and determination criteria for the comprehensive index of environmental pollution.
IV. Institutional Subjects
1. Building a clean government
In 2000, for every 10,000 employees in government and Party departments as well as in social institutions, 41 cases were filed by the procuratorial organs in China, and this figure should fall to 10 cases per 10,000 employees by the year of 2020.
2. Government administration ability
The government administration ability involves many aspects such as public finance administration, state reserve conditions, construction of laws and regulations, and maintenance of social order. We take abnormal mortality as a substituting indicator to evaluate the administration ability of government in the indicator system for a well-off society in an all-round way. In this article, the proportion of deaths in traffic accidents and fires is used to estimate the abnormal mortality. This ratio was 15‰ in 2000 and should fall to 5‰ in 2020.
March 2004
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