Property and retail are top picks: Robeco
Updated: 2010-02-09 07:22
By Li Tao(HK Edition)
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HONG KONG: Property and retail represent the best investment sectors in Hong Kong for 2010, according to Robeco, the asset management arm of Dutch bank Rabobank.
"Near zero interest rates in the US and the Hong Kong's short housing supply will keep property prices high," said Arnout van Rijn, chief investment officer of Robeco Asia Pacific Equities, as he gave his firm's investment outlook for the year yesterday.
Van Rijn expects residential property prices to rise later this year, while the outlook for rentals is flat. Given that consumer confidence in Hong Kong is at reasonable levels, he predicts residential property transactions to stay firm.
The Hong Kong retail sector is also expected to remain attractive, thanks to the strong growth in mainland consumption and the increasing number of mainland tourists coming to the city and shopping here.
Despite a robust domestic economy, the Hang Seng Index this year is expected to be muted, due to the tightening policies around the world, which are likely to hold back stock market gains.
Sometime in the first or second quarter, the market is likely to start reflecting the rising concerns over higher interest rates in the US, as well as the tightening of liquidity in Hong Kong, he said.
However, given the strength of the mainland economy, Rijn said the downside risk to the Hong Kong stock market is limited.
"The outlook for Hong Kong cannot be seen separately from the outlook for the mainland," Rijn said. "Hong Kong's economy is an extension of the mainland's economy, though slightly skewed towards the mainland's export sector and the global financial market."
Van Rijn said the mainland's remarkable recovery and performance in financial markets last year helped Hong Kong achieve a surprisingly smooth passage through 2009. He believes the momentum is set to continue this year.
"With a strong performance in the mainland's economy, I don't expect to see a double dip in Hong Kong," van Rijn added.
As for the mainland, Robeco expects a positive year ahead. "The mainland's macro-situation looks rosy this year. It has already moved from the economic recovery phase into an expansion stage," said Victoria Mio, Senior Portfolio Manager Robeco Chinese Equities fund.
Mio expects strong GDP growth, and that corporate earnings growth will characterize a good year for the mainland.
Due to the financial crisis, the US can no longer be counted on to provide the consumer of last resort, Mio observed. He also said the mainland is therefore being forced to cultivate its domestic market and move its economy to a more domestic-demand-driven one.
"The cornerstone of this rebalancing act is mobilizing the spending power of the Chinese population. Policy statements from the State Council make it clear that the Chinese government is striving to boost consumption by income transfers and fiscal subsidies. One such subsidy is a four-year program to help the rural population buy white goods," said Mio.
(HK Edition 02/09/2010 page4)