China housing to recover in 2 years
Updated: 2008-11-21 07:31
(HK Edition)
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Fund management firm Invesco said China's flagging housing market is likely to stabilize in about six months and recover in two years, ahead of other markets in Asia, thanks to the central government's support measures.
Cheng Soon Lau, managing director at Invesco Real Estate Asia, said his company was planning to invest directly in the mainland, Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore, set up office blocks and build housing properties there.
"We have invested through equities of real estate companies or through REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts). But this will be the first time that we will have direct investments," Lau said in an interview, without giving the total size of the expected investments or a timeframe.
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Invesco Real Estate Asia plans to invest directly in Chinese mainland, Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore and expects China's property sector to recover ahead of other markets. AFP |
He added that the central government's recent steps to boost the property sector were starting to have an impact. "We are beginning to see some small responses to the government measures to support the real estate sector," he said.
"After six months, we will probably see a bit of equilibrium and stability in the market, particularly in the residential sector."
Last month Beijing had cut mortgage rates, reduced down payments for first-time home-buyers and cut transaction taxes to stimulate demand for housing. This month, the government also announced $586 billion worth of spending on building homes and other infrastructure to spur the domestic economy.
The moves were an about-turn by the government, which until the end of last year was bent on cooling the country's fast-growing property industry by tightening credit to developers and imposing rules to deter speculation.
China's overall urban real estate prices rose 1.6 percent in October from a year earlier, a sharp deceleration from several months ago, but cities such as Shenzhen and Guangzhou have seen prices slump by as much as 30 percent.
Developers such as China Vanke, the country's biggest listed property developer, have reported poor sales.
"The market in China has cooled off in the last 18 months and that's healthy," Lau said. "We don't want to see an overheating market. Going forward, we expect the government to provide more liquidity into real estate through relaxed lending and easier credits."
Vanke reported a 35 percent drop in property sales in October from a year ago, the fifth consecutive monthly decline.
Lau said the high level of deals in Japan made the country a top investment destination in Asia for Invesco.
"Japan offers good yields. It is a very established market and in terms of liquidity, it is larger than all other markets," Lau said. According to the latest survey by Nikkei Business Daily, released on Monday, rents for office buildings in Tokyo this year posted their biggest drop since 1993.
It was also the first decline in six years, it said. Singapore's property sector is also starting to sputter, but Lau said it will benefit in the longer term from the government's bid to promote the city state as an Asian business hub.
"Notwithstanding the current economic slowdown, Singapore remains attractive. It is a lifestyle and talent hub in the region. More and more people want to live there," he said.
Reuters
(HK Edition 11/21/2008 page3)