Despite a surge in Chinese overseas direct investment (ODI) in recent years, it is unlikely to outpace inbound foreign direct investment (FDI) this year, government officials and experts said yesterday.

Responding to recent forecasts by foreign banks and other organizations that ODI may overtake FDI, they said it is not likely to happen soon, at least not this year, partly due to Chinalco's $19.5 billion failed bid last month to raise its stake in Rio Tinto, the world's third-largest mining company.

Even though Chinese National Petroleum Corp, joining hands with British energy giant BP, won the bid to develop Iraq's biggest oilfield on Tuesday, it may not significantly raise overall ODI this year because most deals signed in the past few months are "of small volume".