The beginning of a new year is usually a time for saying all the good things, and for confidence- boosting messages. But since we are in the depth of a global crisis (and how deep it will be is still hard to gauge), and since no country can afford to make new mistakes, we had better be more realistic.

The year of 2009, or according to the Chinese zodiac, the Year of the Ox (or of the more auspicious bull, as the Chinese business people like to think) is unlikely to be a year of quick fixing and recovery. Instead, it is likely to mark only the beginning of a protracted war against a global recession.

It may be interesting to point out that it was another Year of the Ox, that of 1937, that marked out the beginning of a historic protracted war in China, to resist Japan's full-scale aggression. In comparison with that real war, I have full confidence to say that the war now facing China is a much lighter one.