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Economy to see 'good ending' in 4th quarter

By Chen Jia ( China Daily ) Updated: 2013-10-22 09:08:20

According to the NBS, urban household disposable income rose by 7.2 percent year-on-year in real terms in the third quarter, after growth slowed to 6.4 percent in the second, which supported a mild pickup in urban household consumption.

Real growth in rural household cash income also accelerated to 10.2 percent year-on-year in the third quarter, compared with 8.9 percent in the second. Migrant workers' real wage growth stayed robust at 9.9 percent between July and September.

Economists predict that the leadership will prefer to maintain current monetary and fiscal policies, without expanding the fiscal deficit or increasing the money supply to stimulate investment, and to focus more on shifting the growth model to one that is driven by consumption.

Peng Wensheng, chief economist at China International Capital Corp, an investment banking group, said that the economic rebound is likely to remain until the second quarter of 2014.

"However, structural contradictions will limit the rebound, as the potential growth rate of the world's second-largest economy is slowing," he said.

Policies in the near future will focus more on structural rebalancing, rather than further stimulating investment, considering the potential real estate bubbles and financial risks, according to Peng.

Chang Jian, chief economist at Barclays Capital, said the whole year's GDP growth may reach 7.6 percent.

In 2014, as the government continues to stress reforms, growth is likely to slow to 7.1 percent, Chang said.

"Whether the government can announce crucial financial reform measures at the meeting of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in November and downgrade the 2014 growth target to 7 percent from this year's 7.5 percent, will be a test for the leadership's tolerance," she said.

This year the central government has reduced administrative examinations and approvals, accelerated railway construction, strengthened supports for small businesses and liberalized interest rates.

 

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