日批在线视频_内射毛片内射国产夫妻_亚洲三级小视频_在线观看亚洲大片短视频_女性向h片资源在线观看_亚洲最大网

chinadaily.com.cn
left corner left corner
China Daily Website

Offshore, onshore yuan likely to appreciate against USD in 2013

Updated: 2012-10-17 13:17
By Ryan Tsai ( China Daily)

Offshore, onshore yuan likely to appreciate against USD in 2013

Hong Kong banks are increasingly offering attractive renminbi (or yuan) deposit rates, which I expect to remain stable in the near term. I also see some scope for appreciation in both the offshore and onshore renminbi against the dollar in 2013.

Offshore renminbi deposits in Hong Kong offer a new option for investors who seek higher yields but are not willing to take on excessive exchange-rate risk. Yuan deposit rates in Hong Kong have increased by over 2.3 percentage points since late 2011 to the current 3-3.2 percent, depending on term of deposit.

Hong Kong residents can buy up to 20,000 yuan of deposits a day. Non-Hong Kong residents, or individuals without a Hong Kong identity card, were recently permitted by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to open local bank accounts without any daily yuan conversion limits.

Yuan deposit rates in Hong Kong have in past years been well below the onshore one-year benchmark rate, which now stands at 3 percent after two 25 basis-point cuts over the summer. These offshore and onshore rates have now converged following a drastic swing in exchange rate expectations from appreciation to depreciation, especially against the US dollar. As demand for yuan conversion stalled, Hong Kong banks increasingly sought to tempt savers with higher rates.

Looking ahead, the CNY (onshore Chinese yuan exchange rate) and CNH (Hong Kong yuan exchange rate) are expected to stay relatively stable for the rest of the year, and to appreciate by about 1.5 percent against the dollar in 2013. I don't expect a significant move either higher or lower over this period, although two-way volatility may increase in the longer term.

Several factors caused the Chinese currency to fall 1.4 percent against the dollar between May and June, with expectations of a continued slide. The worsening Euro zone debt crisis, a sharp decline in Chinese export growth to just 1 percent in July, and reduced foreign direct investment into China all led to capital outflows. These outflows pushed China into its first (though moderate) second-quarter capital and financial account deficit in a decade.

The recent renewal of strong support from global central banks, notably the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank, appears to have increased risk appetite and slowed the capital outflow from China. Further helped by intervention by the People's Bank of China, the CNY is now little changed from the start of the year.

The yuan is expected to remain stable for the rest of the year, especially during the period of political leadership transition in early November.

In the medium term, I believe the quantitative easing by the Fed (QE3) will lead to some pick-up in Chinese exports and a modest recovery in Chinese growth which may support a 1.5 percent gain of the CNY and the CNH against the dollar in 2013.

The author is senior investment strategist for Greater China at Coutts. The views expressed here are entirely his own.

 
 
...
...
...
主站蜘蛛池模板: 91操视频| 色婷婷在线观看视频 | 国产精品ww | 激情丁香六月 | 国产www色| 日韩精品中文字幕在线播放 | 婷婷爱五月天 | 操操操操操操操操 | 51精品| 欧美一二区 | 久久这里只有精品国产 | 五月天综合激情网 | 国产福利在线视频 | 草草精品视频 | 337p日本 | 国产伦理久久精品久久久久 | 在线观看的av网址 | 中文字幕激情 | 欧洲在线视频 | 色女av| 日韩视频一二三 | 国产久操视频 | 在线日韩av | 丰满肥臀噗嗤啊x99av | 亚洲午夜在线观看 | 国产精品羞羞答答 | 天堂av资源网 | 久久天堂视频 | 日韩二区视频 | 午夜国产福利 | 在线观看日本黄色 | 日本亚洲最大的色成网站www | 亚洲欧美日韩免费 | 免费观看黄色录像 | 中文色网 | 中文字幕在线播放一区 | 国产性猛交xxxx免费看久久 | 免费观看黄色的网站 | 国产区久久 | 久久激情免费视频 | 91av在线播放 |