One clear lesson for oil-exporting countries in recent years, and especially in 2016, is that they should adjust their public policies to promote innovation and diversify their economies. The agreement of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in late November to cut production - the first in eight years - doesn't change this, regardless of the short-term increase in prices.

Oil revenues appear to have magically boosted oil-exporting countries' GDPs over the last quarter century, especially in the Gulf region. Today, many of these countries have bustling, cosmopolitan cities with dazzling skylines, world-class infrastructure, and higher-than-average living standards.

But the world in 2017 and beyond will be different. The downward pressure on oil prices reflects not just lower global energy demand, owing to slower economic growth; it also stems from technological changes in hydrocarbon production, the recent rise of renewable energy sources, and global commitments to fight climate change.