Low poll turnout indicates voters distrust opposition, analysts speculate

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe won comfortable re-election on Sunday in a snap poll he had billed as a referendum on his economic policies after early success faded into a recession, although voter turnout appeared headed for a postwar record low.

The projections, based on exit polls, showed the ruling Liberal Democratic Party easily retaining its majority in the 475-seat House of Representatives. Exit polls have been reliable predictors of the final results in past Japanese elections.

Abe has cast the snap election as a referendum on his "Abenomics" strategy to end deflation and generate growth.

The vote was called by Abe after just two years in office in a gamble originally seen as potentially costing seats for his party. But media projections had predicted that his long-dominant LDP could win more than 300 seats in the 475-member lower house, making it the biggest victory since its founding nearly six decades ago.

Together, the LDP and its junior partner, the Komeito Party, keep their two-thirds "supermajority".

Experts cautioned before the election that any mandate for Abe might be smaller than it first appears since disaffected voters who are increasingly dubious of Abenomics but wary of other groups opposing him could stay home in large numbers.

As of midafternoon, voter turnout was 26 percent, down almost 6 percentage points from the same time in the last general election in 2012, according to the government.

Turnout hit a postwar record low of 59.3 percent in that poll, which saw Abe return to power for a rare second term on pledges to reboot an economy plagued by deflation and an aging, shrinking population.

Fragile economy

"This is not so much a vote of confidence in Abe and the LDP as a vote of no-confidence in the political opposition," said Columbia University professor Gerry Curtis.

Hopes for Abe's "Three Arrows" - eased monetary policy, government spending and reforms such as deregulation - were tarnished after the economy slipped into recession in the third quarter following an April sales tax rise. Recent data suggest any rebound will be fragile.

Abe decided last month to put off a second tax increase, to 10 percent, until April 2017, raising concerns about how Japan will curb its huge public debt, which is the worst among advanced nations.

"I worry that Japan's public finances will get even worse," said Akihiro Fujihara, 38, who planned to vote later on Sunday. "I wish there was a party out there that would come up with actual proposals to make Japan a better place to live."

Media forecasts suggest the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan has been unable to gain traction, largely due to voters' memories of its 2009-12 rule, which was plagued by policy flip-flops, infighting and three premiers in three years.

Abe called the election in a bid to strengthen his grip on power before tackling unpopular policies such as restarting nuclear reactors idled after the 2011 Fukushima disaster and a security policy shift away from postwar pacifism.

The expected LDP victory could make it easier for Abe to be re-elected in a party leadership race in September, boosting the chance he stays in power through 2018 and becomes one of Japan's rare long-term leaders.

Aside from local elections in April, his coalition will probably not need to face voters until a 2016 election for the upper house, where the LDP and the Komeito Party now hold a majority.

"If Abe wins big, he will at least have a free hand on policy until the 2016 upper house election," said Hideyuki Ishiguro, senior strategist at Okasan Securities.

Reuters - AFP - AP

(China Daily 12/15/2014 page11)