At the Davos Forum last month, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe tried to refute a prevailing belief among academics that deepening economic interdependence minimizes the chances of war. Instead, he cited what he called Beijing's unchecked expansion and "non-transparent" military budget to portray China as a threat to Japan.

But, according to the authoritative SIPRI Yearbook for 2013, the combined military expenditure of the US-Japan alliance, $741.3 billion, was almost 4.5 times that of China. Since air and naval forces are more likely to decide the fate of a war over the Diaoyu Islands, it is crucial to heed to Western (unproven) estimates that the US-Japan alliance's 5,001 combat aircraft pale China's 2,200 into insignificance. The naval strength of the US-Japan alliance is much stronger, too. Its combined fleet of 88 submarines, for example, eclipses China's 60. The alliance also has more warships than China.

And although starting 2012 China's defense budget, probably for the first time, was twice as big as Japan's, the cold truth is that China has 10 times more people and 25 times more territory to defend than Japan.