Against a backdrop of rising raw material costs and industrial oversupply, most steel mills across the nation will make losses or struggle to break even in the next five to 10 years, according to experts.

Driven by nationwide infrastructure construction, the capacity of China's steel industry surged by 400 million tons from 2004 to 2012. But as the nation's economy enters a steady growth stage, there are between 200 and 300 million tons of excess capacity at the moment, said Xu Kuangdi, president of the Chinese Society for Metals.

"Some observers said it is winter in the Chinese steel industry, but I don't see that spring will follow," said Xu at the Baosteel (Baoshan Iron and Steel) biennial academic conference that started on Tuesday, suggesting steel mills may have to suffer a longer period of hardship than expected.