NIAMEY, Niger - The likely flight of Saif al-Islam Gadhafi from Libya to neighboring Niger leaves the West African nation trying to balance its commitment to the International Criminal Court (ICC)with avoiding another rebellion by heavily armed Tuareg tribesmen.

After the killing of Muammar Gadhafi, Libya itself risks tribal violence, insurgency and chaos unless Tripoli's new government disarms regional militias and eases the grievances bottled up during 42 years of one-man rule.

Thought to be on the run somewhere in the mountains on Libya's southern borders with Algeria and Niger, Saif al-Islam, 39, is desperately seeking to avoid the fate of his father, who was beaten, abused and shot as forces of Libya's National Transitional Council (NTC) captured him on Oct 20 after the fall of his home town Sirte.