Although the strength of the US economy in 2010 remains uncertain, it is important to look ahead to its likely performance in the coming decade.

The rise of GDP over the next decade will reflect the very positive effect of the eventual recovery from the current downturn, combined with a below-trend rise in the economy's potential output at full employment.

When I add up all the key components, I conclude that the coming decade's annual growth is likely to be about 1.9 percent, roughly the same as the average rate over the past 10 years.