Although trade remedy cases by the United States against China will probably grow this year, there is little possibility that a trade war between the two will be ignited given the promising prospects for China-US trade, according to experts from both sides.

The US Commerce Department said on Thursday that it will launch an anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation into imports of drill pipe used for oil wells from China, the first US trade remedy probe against China this year.

Late last year, the United Steelworkers union and several American steel makers lodged the appeal to the US government, calling for anti-dumping duties ranging from 429 to 496 percent on Chinese iron and steel drill pipes. And they also asked for countervailing duties to offset government subsidies, said the US Commerce Department.

According to US statistics, the nation imported drill pipes worth $194.6 million from China in 2008, compared with $107.1 million in 2006.

"This year will continue to be hard for Chinese exporters. Trade remedy cases from the US will surge as the unemployment rate will remain high in the US," said He Weiwen, a World Trade Organization expert from the China Society for American Economy Studies.

"But a trade war cannot easily happen."

Chris Adams, minister counselor for trade affairs with the US Embassy in China, agreed. The trade volume involved in the cases accounts for a "small" part of the total, Adams said.

During the first nine months of 2009, imports affected by such cases accounted for 1.3 percent of US total imports from China, according to the WTO statistics.

Last year, China was the major target of the US trade remedy cases, which has intensified the China-US relations. The US already has 82 anti-dumping duty orders against Chinese goods and another 12 countervailing duty orders.

Many of the cases were launched by the United Steelworkers union, which repeatedly claimed imports from China were sold at low prices leading to job losses.

Yao Jian, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, said at a briefing recently that the Chinese government has noticed the fact, criticizing the cases as "absolutely unreasonable".

"We cannot decide whether or when to do it (the investigation), they are brought up by the industry and consumers," said Sarah Kemp, deputy senior director commercial officer at the US Embassy in China.

World Trade Organization Director-General Pascal Lamy said trade friction between the United States and China over everything from cars to chemicals will increase in the coming years.

The organization was up to the task of ensuring that the US and China never get into an all-out trade war that could have devastating consequences for the global economy.

(China Daily 01/23/2010 page10)