TOKYO: Japan's economy contracted by a 15.2 percent annual pace in the first quarter - its sharpest drop on record - as exports plunged, companies slashed production and families cut back on spending, the government said yesterday.

But the outlook is hopeful. Economists say the world's second-largest economy is most likely past the worst, and some predicted it would grow again in the April-June quarter amid signs of recovering factory output and aggressive stimulus steps by the government.

"I think the economy has passed the bottom and the recovery has begun in the current quarter," said Richard Jerram, chief economist at Macquarie Capital Securities in Tokyo.