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Fragmented statistics
2006-07-05
China Daily
The Ministry of Construction released the results of its annual survey of real estate sector development in urban areas on Monday.
There is nothing unexpected about the 2005 figures per capita floor space in cities, which topped 26 square metres, was still on the rise.
One does not need to read the figures to know the trend. Mushrooming new real estate projects across the nation say it all.
However, there is no way to know, for example, whether the increased living space has benefited many people or just a few a key piece of information that policy-makers, market players and researchers need in order to make rational judgments about the sector. The survey does not offer accurate information in this regard.
As an annual project meant to provide a comprehensive description of the situation in the real estate sector in our cities, the report is painfully sketchy.
In fact, the report reflects a crucial defect by depicting the big picture but fails to provide adequate details that make sense. When detailed figures are provided, more often than not, they are as fragmented as a jigsaw with many missing pieces.
Considering the well-known structural problems in the supply of new housing in Chinese cities, it is perfectly reasonable to ask to what extent the increase in the per capita figure can be attributed to speculators who purchase houses aiming to make a profit at a later date or to the rapid growth in the supply of villas and spacious apartments, many of which are affordable only to the rich.
Without solid statistics, it would be risky to rely on general feelings to make any policy or business decisions.
The report also shows another widespread technical problem a shortage of information about the methodology employed by the statisticians, rendering further research impossible.
Problems in the real estate sector statistics do not stop there. For years, institutions affiliated to the Ministry of Construction and the National Bureau of Statistics published figures that were not only incompatible but also sometimes conflicting.
The real estate sector is already an indisputably vital part of the economy. In addition to controls over land and credit supply, the country is in dire need of more sophisticated statistical work to facilitate improved decision-making by the government and market players.
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