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Watch property froth
2005-11-16
China Daily
I have kept skimming through accessible newspapers or Internet portals for real estate news almost every day in the past months.
In so doing, I try to acquire as much information as possible about the country's property market and the price tendency of commercial houses, especially those in Beijing where I live.
I am not a real estate analyst, a policy researcher or a developer. I also am not a potential home buyer planning a future purchase. I already bought an unfinished commercial house in the capital months ago.
Through regular reading, I only want to know whether my future house, due to be finished by next October 31, is devalued. I also want to savour the joys and the sorrows of other netizens in their home-buying exploits.
I have found a phenomenon on the Internet: Anyone who predicts the fall of the price of commercial houses always wins good opinions from netizens, and whoever holds the opposite would invite stronger waves of opposition and even venomous personal abuses.
I was once a member of this group, most of whom, I guess, have yet to purchase a house.
Only a few months ago, I had the same anger and used the same malicious language to attack those who spread "rumours" that the price of commercial houses has room to rise in the future, no matter how persuasive his or her words were.
I admit that I somewhat lost my good sense that time. In my opinion, anyone who disseminated the "rise" theory would help the price of houses rise and thus harm the interests of masses of ordinary people, including me. And anyone who spread the "fall" theory would help the price decrease, thus acting as our spokesperson.
The price of commercial houses has served as an important element behind the increasingly widespread depression among a number of young urban residents in big cities like Beijing and Shanghai.
I cannot offer an accurate number, but the figure would surely be astonishing. I was nearly in a state of depression for some period of time, though in Beijing I am not in the lowest-income group.
The soaring price of residential houses has become a dominant topic when friends meet or get together. The intolerably steep price may evolve into one of the largest potential factors behind social instability. One comment after another from media commentators and experts, and one policy and measure after another from the authorities in short periods can bear best testimony to the great concern the nation has towards the price of houses and the industry.
An Internet search will turn up countless articles and data analyzing how long it will take a three-member family in Beijing and Shanghai to purchase a two-room house with their incomes. The conclusions range from more than 10, to 20, 30 and even 40 years -- even if not a single cent is spent on food and clothes.
In developed countries, the price of a commercial house is usually four to ten times the yearly income of a family.
Here I am not going to tediously expound the unreasonable ratio between the price of houses and residents' incomes in China.
In Shanghai, it is not rare that a commercial residential house in downtown is priced between 40,000 and 50,000 yuan (US$4,938 to 6,173) to an unbelievable 100,000 yuan (US$12,346) per square metre. Meanwhile, the per capita disposable income of the city is less than 20,000 yuan (US$2,469).
I am also not going to call on the authorities to take more effective measures to slash the price, given that the amount of such pleas have gone through the roof.
What I only want is to share my own house-buying experience and my personal understanding about the current property market with the netizens who have similar experiences as I did months ago.
Houses are not a piece of common commodity, whose price is mainly determined by its value and supply-demand situation. Compared with other articles, purchasers' psychological expectations can easily influence the price of commercial houses.
The price is sure to rise when most potential house purchasers think so, and would fall provided that they think it did, especially at the time when the property market remains not transparent.
Both property developers and consumers know this very well.
To gain an overwhelming information advantage over consumers in the property market, some developers have tried to win over some unscrupulous officials, experts and scholars to speak for them.
This is why netizens severely lash out at the "price rise" advocates and praise those who predict its fall.
I cannot know who and how many on earth speak for us or for profits-oriented property developers. But I know that it is unreasonable to believe the "rise" advocates are surely against our interests, and the "fall" champions are for our interests.
Under the two sharply contrasting theories, ordinary people often face a dilemma. They cannot judge which is right and which is wrong, and thus only to choose to wait and wait.
Under this situation, the most appropriate chances to buy an ideal house may possibly slip from their fingers.
I am a big victim of the "price fall" theory. Under the theory, I had always chosen to wait for the price to plummet since two years ago. But the result is I paid a much higher price to buy the same large house in the same location.
I deeply regret that I put too much faith on those economists. I even doubt some of them only want to win the "spokesperson" reputation among common people by purposefully clinging to the "fall" theory.
Finally, I made my decision to buy a house at the time when the government was making a series of measures to intervene in the overheated property industry, and there were prevailing opinions that the price of houses would fall.
Fact proves my decision right. The price of houses in Beijing has been on a steady rise though this is very abnormal.
There have been a lot of data collected to prove that the capital's overheated property market is being cooled. But the fact is that the price of houses in the same location has been on the increase at a not too slow speed.
No one can deny it is an abnormal phenomenon that Beijingers endure such a high price of houses with so low incomes.
Here, I only want to express non-authoritative opinions about the property market as an economics layman. Thus, my remarks are expected not to influence consumers' decision. But my suggestion is government officials and experts should be more cautious in making predictions.
Given their "respectable" titles, any of their comments would be easily regarded by common people as an authority to guide their next action.
In view of this, any rash prediction or judgment without solid evidence would be extremely irresponsible, misleading or even harmful to consumers.
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