Economy
Economic indices at peaks, signal rosy outlook
(Agencies)
Updated: 2009-12-01 14:23
BEIJING: China's economy is ending the year on a strong note, laying the foundations for solid expansion in 2010, a pair of business surveys showed on Tuesday.
An index produced for HSBC, based on a poll of purchasing executives in manufacturing, hit a record high in November, while a parallel official index was unchanged at an 18-month peak.
Together, the surveys showed that the world's third-largest economy has largely recovered from the global downturn thanks to aggressive pro-growth measures adopted a year ago.
Mingchun Sun, Nomura's chief China economist, said the report suggested year-on-year gross domestic product growth this quarter was on track to reach his forecast of 11 percent. Qu Hongbin said he expected a 10 percent GDP growth rate.
With manufacturing gaining further steam, Qu Hongbin, chief China economist with HSBC, said he expected Chinese domestic product to grow by more than 10 percent this quarter compared with a year earlier.
"This, combined with the latest policy statement with more emphasis on quality of growth, means added room for policy makers to redirect fiscal spending from infrastructure investment to pro-consumption areas," Qu said.
HSBC's China Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to a record high of 55.7 in November from 55.4 in October.
The index, based on a survey dating back to April 2004, has steadily recovered from a record low of 40.9 plumbed in November 2008 in the depths of the global credit crunch.
It is the eighth month in a row that the index, designed to provide a timely snapshot of business conditions in industry, has been above the watershed of 50 that divides expansion and contraction.
Looking Good
HSBC's new export orders sub-index rose in November to 57.5, the highest level since March 2005, from 55.6 in October.
Respondents said they were seeing stronger demand because of a recovery in the global economy.
