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Seismologist tells regret, expectation of quake prediction

(Xinhua)
Updated: 2009-05-12 13:35

But even many supporters of predictions said that making very accurate forecasts, which were the meaningful predictions for the general public, was almost impossible at present. It might take centuries to achieve such accuracy.  "But efforts should not stop, even if only in preparation for the future," Sun said.

Many of the older generation of Chinese seismologists seemed to share Sun's faith in the future of quake prediction. They felt a strong sense of social responsibility.

The new law reiterated that only high-level earthquake administrations were authorized to make predictions. Concerned over construction quality, people in China took quake predictions seriously.

Rumors could be very damaging economically and politically, in terms of social stability.

Strict government control of quake prediction denied any non-official researcher the right of making predictions. But quake forecasts by such researchers might be examined and, at least in theory, disseminated by the government if they were convincing. The mechanism, in practice for decades, was confirmed in the new law as "mass monitoring and preparation".

Sun had been responsible for classifying and scrutinizing quake reports and forecasts. He didn't remember receiving anything that forecasted the Wenchuan earthquake. "An unlikely-sounding forecast from an experienced observer might get fairly close to reality, but we won't usually buy such claims. We'll check a forecaster's records. If he doesn't have a sound record of successful forecasts, how can we believe him?" Sun said.

Supporters thus won a victory in the legislation, which meant quake prediction could legally continue.

But the new law, reflecting the lessons of previous disasters, gave more importance to other protective measures such as higher quality of construction, public education on surviving quakes, and rescue training. Protection against earthquakes was seen as a multi-faceted effort that should involve quake monitoring, prediction, injury and damage prevention, disaster rescue and relief, and post-quake reconstruction.

"China's quake legislation is delivering. Research should catch up," CENC deputy director Zhang Xiaodong said in an interview.

According to Zhang, there was progress last year in enhancing the performance of quake monitoring and rapid report networks. As a result, initial reports became faster and more informative.

Seismic administrations in most provinces were now expected to submit reports of 3.5 magnitude or stronger quakes in less than 20 minutes, five minutes faster than before. To facilitate rescue and relief operations, the report must include information about the population density and  distribution, as well as quake records of the epicenter and affected areas.

Prediction remains an important method to guard against quakes, especially for periods of months or years, something that modern technology was capable of delivering.

Although the general public might not find such predictions useful, a long-term outlook could be used to secure the safety of reservoirs, oil fields, nuclear power stations and the like.

And while it seems impossible now, Chinese seismologists are pursuing short-term quake predictions. "It's the ultimate goal of CEA and the very reason the institution was started in 1971," Sun said.

The Wenchuan quake was a severe blow to the morale of seismologists, the younger generation in particular. But Sun, 61, who was probably the last of the old generation to retire, said he did not regret devoting the best part of his life to this profession. "I'm not sure if designing a missile is really in the interests of mankind. But the job of earthquake prediction clearly is, " he said with a smile.

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