China's government said a
surge in investment that propelled first-quarter economic expansion of 10.2
percent needs "attention," suggesting it will act to cool lending in the world's
fastest-growing major economy.
Fixed-asset investment in urban areas rose 29.8 percent in the quarter from a
year earlier, the statistics bureau said today. That exceeded the government's
18 percent target for 2006. The bureau's figure for economic growth confirmed an
April 16 announcement by President Hu Jintao.
"There are prominent problems that call for our attention, such as rapid
growth of investment in fixed assets and of bank loans," Zheng Jingping, a
bureau spokesman, said in a statement issued in Beijing.
Premier Wen Jiabao last week said he wants to curb spending on factories,
which has caused oversupply of goods in China and pushed global commodities
prices to records. The government is seeking to avoid a sudden slowdown in
China, the world's biggest market for steel and second-largest oil user, by
shifting its focus to raising incomes and consumer spending.
"Overinvestment has become a serious problem again and this kind of growth
model is unsustainable," said Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist at Galaxy Securities,
China's biggest brokerage. "The central bank has to pull liquidity out of the
system and break this cycle or we could see a much sharper slowdown in growth
than the government wants."
Land Sales Controls
In March alone, fixed-asset investment jumped 32.7 percent. China will
tighten controls over land sales for new investment projects, Zheng said at a
press conference in Beijing. The yield on China's three-year government bond is
near a four-month high as investors anticipate more tightening by the central
bank.
President Hu last week said fast expansion isn't a goal in itself for the
government, and expressed concern about the economic structure. The government
cracked down on lending to investment in projects such as steel mills and auto
plants two years ago, only to see growth begin to inch up again in 2005.
China's top economic planning body, the National Development and Reform
Commission, said in March it aims to slow investment growth to around 18 percent
this year.
With disposable incomes climbing at about 10 percent a year and investment
soaring, China is accounting for a bigger share of business at global companies
such as Caterpillar Inc., Starbucks Corp. and Nokia Oyj. Commodities markets
fell in the second quarter of 2004, the last time China moved to curtail
investment.
Raise Reserve Requirement?
"If we don't start to see some slowdown in investment growth I'll be
concerned," said Romeo Dator, co-manager of the China Region Opportunity Fund
run by U.S. Global Investors Inc. "The question is what policies will the
government take and how draconian will they be."
Zuo and economists including Jonathan Anderson at UBS AG say the People's
Bank of China may raise the percentage of deposits banks must set aside as
reserves to stem money supply growth that's encouraging lending for investment
projects.
New yuan lending totaled 1.26 trillion yuan in the first quarter, 70 percent
more than the same period last year, the central bank said last week. The
expansion accounts for half of the bank's 2.5 trillion yuan loan growth target
for this year. Money supply growth has topped the central bank's official target
for 10 straight months.
Surging credit growth, a widening trade surplus and double-digit economic
expansion amount to "close to a perfect storm of problematic trends" for the
central bank, Anderson, chief Asia economist for UBS AG, said in a research
note. That "should guarantee some sort of policy response over the next few
weeks."
Topping France, U.K.
In addition to increasing the reserve requirement ratio for banks, the
People's Bank of China may also impose more administrative controls on lending,
and adjust lending or deposit interest rates "at the margin," Anderson wrote.
Gross domestic product rose to 4.33 trillion yuan ($540 billion) in the first
quarter, the statistics bureau said. Growth accelerated from 9.9 percent in the
fourth quarter, and equaled the pace of expansion in the last quarter of 2004,
Zheng said.
China leapfrogged France and the U.K. to become the world's fourth-largest
economy last year, boosted by the results of a nationwide census in 2004 that
showed the $2.26 trillion economy was 17 percent bigger than previously
estimated.
Accelerating growth in China has pushed raw material prices to records,
benefiting companies such as Jiangxi Copper Co. the nation's second-biggest
producer of the metal. The price of copper yesterday reached its highest ever in
London.
Currency Reform
The Hang Seng China Enterprise Index, which comprises mainland companies
incorporated in Hong Kong, has risen 34 percent this year, the seventh-best
performer among 77 world indices tracked by Bloomberg. The gain has been led by
metals companies such as Jiangxi Copper and Zijin Mining Group Co.
The International Monetary Fund yesterday raised its forecast for China's
expansion this year to 9.5 percent from an earlier 8.2 percent, citing soaring
exports and investment. Still, it cautioned that the composition of growth
raises risks for the economy over time.
"What leads to higher growth in the short run could lead to difficulties in
the medium term," said David Burton, director of IMF's Asia and Pacific
Department. "It could mean too much investment in wrong places, excess capacity
in certain sectors, nonperforming loans for the banking system."
Allowing the currency to appreciate faster would also help the central bank
stem lending growth, economists said. The yuan has risen 1.2 percent against to
dollar since July, when China revalued it and started managing it with reference
to a basket of currencies.
The World Trade Organization, in its first review of China's commercial
policy, yesterday urged China to ease currency controls to improve economic
efficiency. The central bank buys foreign currencies to control the pace of yuan
appreciation, and China restricts the flow of capital going overseas.
Lifting currency controls would "allow the market to play a greater role in
determining interest rates and therefore in allocating resources," the WTO said
in the report.