Opinion/Analysis
Services trade marked as next big thing after crisis
By Lan Lan (China Daily)
Updated: 2009-12-02 07:50
China is aiming to cut its reliance on manufacturing and boost its services trade to facilitate domestic economic restructuring going into the post-crisis world market.
Trade in goods, which mainly generates from labor-intensive manufacturing industries and accounts for about 90 percent of the country's total trade, has caused an imbalance in trade structure and hurt the country's exports amid the economic slowdown, analysts said ahead of the Central Economic Work Conference.
Chen Mingqi, a director of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said even though officials predict China's exports of goods will rise 10 percent in 2010, he has his reservations.
"I agree China's exports of goods will increase positively next year, partly due to the tiny base this year and China's long-term competitive advantage. But in consideration of trade protectionism, shrinking expenses and consumer psychology, I hold a conservative viewpoint for the growth rate," Chen said.
In the first 10 months of 2009, China's exports slumped 20.5 percent year-on-year to $957 billion.
Imports decreased to $798 billion, down 19 percent compared to a year earlier, according to official data.
Meanwhile, exports of goods are facing escalating trade frictions.
A total of 19 nations and regions have initiated 88 trade-remedy probes against China in the first nine months, the Ministry of Commerce said.
"Exports generated from services sectors, especially capital-intensive and knowledge-intensive, won't trigger trade conflicts," Ni Yueju, a trade researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said.
To offset the declining exports and adjust its trade structure, Commerce Minister Chen Deming last week urged to promote the services trade and predicted China's service imports would reach $1 trillion in the next five years.
Though China enjoys a trade surplus in goods, it suffers large trade deficit in services. In the first half of the year, China's trade deficit in services increased fourfold to $16.7 billion, official figures show.
A low starting point also means vast room for development, said Xing Houyuan, a director with the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation affiliated with the Ministry of Commerce.
Exports of some of the emerging sectors, like IT outsourcing, maintained a positive growth in the first half of this year despite the economic downturn.
China's coastal cities such as Shanghai and Guangzhou have shown strong capability in carrying out international outsourcing projects.
But a variety of barriers such as the lack of talent, policy and fiscal supports have held back the development of trade in services, analysts said.
China's service industries account for only 40 percent of the national gross domestic product (GDP), lagging far behind the average of 69 percent in global GDP.
