Song Yu

3. Will the renminbi depreciation continue?

Song Yu, chief economist at Goldman Sachs for China

Yes. Despite top policymakers reiterating their commitment to maintaining exchange rate stability and policy to keep the renminbi largely steady, uncertainty over China's foreign exchange policy and the sustainability of the Chinese currency's value remains high.

We (at Goldman Sachs) see the case for a weaker renminbi given the challenges of domestic growth and deflation and the potentially large pent-up demand of Chinese consumers for foreign assets, although we do not believe that the renminbi is greatly above fair value.

After all, China shows few symptoms of currency over-valuation. For example, China's trade surplus is still strong and Chinese exports' share in the global market has remained quite stable. But letting the exchange rate float freely could conceivably lead to large currency overshooting (much more weakening), depending on the prevailing market environment.

Our baseline expects a moderate 3 to 4 percent depreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar in 2016.

This view envisages what could be characterized as a second-best reform scenario－namely, that a favorable window of opportunity for reform will arrive and the authorities will take advantage of that to transition the renminbi regime to a market-based (clean float) one.

Gao Ting

4. Will the

Gao Ting