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Could Guangzhou top the list for prime residential properties?

Foreign property consultants seem to think so, but not local property analysts.

In the "Annual Wealth Report 2007" released recently by Knight Frank, a property consultancy based in the United Kingdom, Guangzhou is listed as the key city for prime residential properties in China, followed by Beijing and Shanghai.

Ahead of Guangzhou are St Petersburg and Moscow in Russia, New Delhi and Mumbai in India and Cape Town in South Africa.

The rating is based on the future price growth of prime residential properties.

Han Shitong, an analyst with Guangzhou Real Estate Association, does not agree with Knight Frank.

"Guangzhou does not have prime properties in the real sense," he said. "The so-called 'prime properties' are at most high-end houses with prices ranging from 3 million yuan ($389,000) to 5 million yuan."

He said such houses cannot be compared to prime properties which fetch tens of millions of dollars in many other countries and regions.

The price of a so-called prime property in Guangzhou is generally about 20,000 yuan per square meter and such property is rare in the city. Some villas in downtown Guangzhou go for about 40,000 yuan per square meter.

Compared to Beijing and Shanghai, very few foreigners or wealthy people from outside the Pearl River Delta have bought upscale properties in Guangzhou, Han said.

In addition, the local government has been keeping a tight rein on the development of villas, which makes it difficult for prime properties to mushroom, he said.

Pan Wanxia, a director of Guangdong Centaline Property Ltd, said prime properties in Guangzhou have the potential to appreciate in the future because of limited supply and relatively low costs.

In terms of design, quality, decoration, management and location, Guangzhou's upscale properties are equal to, if not better, than those in Beijing and Shanghai, she said.

Pan said the return on investment in upscale properties could be much higher than the present rate of 8 percent.

"Depreciation could also be much lower than that for other residential properties," she said.