日批在线视频_内射毛片内射国产夫妻_亚洲三级小视频_在线观看亚洲大片短视频_女性向h片资源在线观看_亚洲最大网

US EUROPE AFRICA ASIA 中文
Business / View

New monetary easings raise concern

By J. Soedradjad Djiwandono (China Daily) Updated: 2012-10-29 07:25

Recently, the central banks of three of the world's largest economies attempted to stimulate their economies by adding new liquidities. The US Federal Reserve under chairman Ben Bernanke, acting on its promise to address the worst US unemployment since the Great Depression, decided to purchase mortgage-backed securities worth up to $40 billion every month.
 

New monetary easings raise concern

The program will be executed indefinitely until the unemployment falls to a more acceptable level. This is known as QE3, following two similar monetary stimulus initiatives since the global financial crisis struck. This decision was made only a few days after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi announced his version of monetary easing, or what he called outright monetary transactions (OMT). It took the form of a program to purchase sovereign bonds of eurozone countries in the secondary market with fewer conditions.

There is now no requirement for triple A-rated bank collateral, and the bonds are not treated as senior loan, meaning in the event of bankruptcy, the ECB loan does not get priority for repayment. However, countries have to subscribe to a bailout program with tough fiscal and structural reform conditions - as in the case of Greece, Ireland and Portugal.

After this, the Bank of Japan too implemented its brand of quantitative easing by buying assets held by banks and giving them loans of about $4,127 billion. On Oct 26, Japan's Cabinet approved a 423 billion yen ($5.3 billion) economic stimulus package, a move to combat recession as its economic recovery falters.

In all these policies, the central banks seem to show the public that they are proactively pursuing a policy to salvage their economies. In a way, these independent central banks have made a unilateral decision to make the policies, without being pressured by their governments.

There is no clear answer as to whether these policies work. Most economists who support QE3 could only claim that it is because of these actions that the countries' financial sectors, as well as the global financial system have not worsened. Indeed, every time such a policy has been announced, the market has responded positively, though only for a short time before doubts returned. Only market players seem to welcome the moves of these monetary authorities and even then such positive response has lasted only briefly.

After the initial euphoria, the market players resume worrying about the longer-term problems, like whether the sovereigns could repay their debts, when growth would resume and when the unemployment problem would dissipate. In other words, there is skepticism over the long-term impact of these monetary policies and whether they are effective to address the problem of unemployment.

Draghi has stated very clearly that OMT cannot be effective without cooperation from the real sector. Monetary policy alone is not enough to have an impact on the real sector. Basically, monetary policy is no substitute for fiscal policy. The problem lies in weak demand coupled with a fragile financial system. There is also the issue of whether a monetary authority has a clear mandate to address the problem of unemployment that a quantitative easing is clearly meant to tackle. In a way a quantitative easing seems to be a quasi-fiscal policy, which may not be within the mandate of a central bank.

For sure the Federal Reserve's mandate does include the objective of achieving full employment in the US. However, this is not clearly the case with the ECB, whose main function is to maintain stability against inflation and deflation. Most central banks in Asia after the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98 have also become independent with a narrower mandate of merely guarding financial and/or economic stability.

Another issue involves the ballooning of the balance sheet of these central banks and its implication. In the last four years of QE1 and QE2, the balance sheet of the Fed increased by more than $2 trillion. Now there is a serious possibility of a sovereign default by Greece because of euro crisis. And if ECB loans to banks are not treated as senior loans, there is a grave possibility of a central bank default.

A more serious impact many economists are worried about is on price stability or inflation. It does not take a hardcore monetarist to believe that too much liquidity would ultimately result in inflationary pressure. The Japanese economy in the 1980s and the US economy in the 1990s showed that too much liquidity and very low interest rates for too long could create bubbles - properties or stocks which ultimately developed into financial crises.

The worry over the impact of this strategy on inflationary pressure is as valid as concerns over the quantitative easing executed by the Fed, the ECB and the BOJ.

For emerging Asian economies, there is yet another concern that cannot be ignored. Money is "fungible", as students of monetary economics would say. Additional liquidities arising from the QE3 initiatives of these central banks will not necessarily be spent in their own economies. Any extra liquidity that households, enterprises or banks have will be used first to clear their outstanding obligations and to improve their balance sheets (deleveraging) before any though about spending, which would then create additional demand, boosting growth and ultimately employment.

But where will these additional funds go? They will flow to where there is more room for profit. In this regard, the emerging economies are the most likely destination. In a globalized financial system, it is the emerging economies that will have to deal with these additional liquidities looking for room to unload. This means additional challenge for the monetary authorities of the emerging Asian economies, which are already facing increasing risks in general.

The author is a professor in the international political economy programme, Nanyang Technological University. He is former governor of Bank Indonesia, the Indonesian central bank.

Hot Topics

Editor's Picks
...
主站蜘蛛池模板: 日韩三级在线观看视频 | 亚洲成人精品一区二区 | 一级黄网站 | 久久久久网站 | 亚洲最大av在线 | 国产精品传媒在线观看 | 久久手机免费视频 | 国产原创在线观看 | 日本精品999 | 黄色大片91 | 精品国产乱码久久久久久108 | 久久久久久久久久免费视频 | 欧美天堂网站 | 国产成人在线免费观看视频 | 天堂av网在线 | 亚洲精品自拍偷拍 | 精品久久一区 | 亚洲综合在线视频 | 国产视频一区二区三区在线观看 | 天堂在线观看av | 亚洲色图视频在线 | 日本免费黄色小视频 | 国产中文av在线 | 免费观看视频在线观看 | 手机看片日韩福利 | 国产少妇自拍 | 日韩激情一区二区三区 | 中文字幕理伦片免费看 | 毛片在线免费观看视频 | 日韩色婷婷 | 免费观看毛片视频 | 天天操夜夜操狠狠操 | 国产精品久久网站 | 精品欧美激情精品一区 | 国产精品国产精品国产 | 向井蓝在线观看 | 四虎网站在线观看 | 丁香久久婷婷 | 久操视频免费在线观看 | 日韩欧美中文字幕视频 | 成人一级黄色 |