Opinion
Collapse predicted, welcomed as housing prices continue to skyrocket
(Xinhua)
Updated: 2010-04-05 15:33
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"The anticipation of a market collapse shows that people are getting more discontent and impatient as property prices go through the roof and government measures failed to control the prices rise," said Qin Rui, a senior analyst with the Beijing-based 5i5j Real Estate Service.
February home prices in 70 major cities in China climbed 10.7 percent from a year earlier, the fastest pace in almost two years, the National Bureau of Statistics reported. The rapid growth has ignited fears of an asset price bubble and prompted complaints.
Since the end of last year, the government has put in place a series of measures to curb speculative purchasing in an attempt to stabilize prices, including a harsher property sales tax, increased supply of affordable houses, restraining land purchases, and controlling bank credit.
Qin said the influential policies and seasonal factors in the first two months helped stabilize sales and prices for a while at the beginning of this year. However, people had still expected more effective measures to be unveiled from the annual session of the National People's Congress, China's parliament, in March, he said.
Since the parliamentary session, however, sales and prices have resumed the fast rate of growth in major cities.
In Beijing, previously owned home prices stood at 14,650 yuan per square meter at the end of March, 8.8 percent higher than that at the end of the previous month. Second hand home sales were expected to hit 27,000 in March in Beijing, the second largest only after December last year, according to the Centaline Property Agency. March 30 saw sales of 2,273 second hand homes, the record daily high in history.
Slim chance of Japan-style crash
Experts say that China is unlikely to repeat Japan's asset bubble crash since China currently is at a different development stage than Japan was in the 1980s.
The biggest difference was that China was still at a low stage of development and had a large potential for urbanization and property development, said Hao Daming, economist with the China Galaxy Securities.
The urbanization rate in Japan stood at 75 percent in the 1980s, while China would see its rate around 50 percent in 2015, he said.
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The Bank of Japan said in a report this week that China's current asset price gains were mainly driven by increasing real demand, with more of its population moving to urban areas. This was different from Japan's asset price bubble in the late 1980s, which was driven by speculation, the report said.
Cheng Enfu, a senior scholar at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government think tank, said another difference was that policies made by the Chinese government tended to be more timely and forceful than Japan's policies because policy-making in Japan was more affected by different interest groups.
He believed that the Chinese government would be able to squeeze out bubbles in the real estate market and achieve a soft landing by adopting a raft of measures.
Premier Wen Jiabao said last month that the government would resolutely curb the abrupt rise in property prices in some cities and satisfy people's basic need for housing.
However, experts held that the online predictions should be taken as a warning about the nation's bubbly property market.
"The bubble is big now," Cheng Enfu said, adding the government must be highly alert on potential risk as it would hurt the country's economy and result in social instability if left uncontrolled.
