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Inflation may set two-year high(Bloomberg)Updated: 2007-03-12 08:54 China's inflation rate probably accelerated to a two-year high in February, increasing the chances that the central bank will raise interest rates in the world's fastest-growing major economy. Consumer prices rose 2.8 percent from a year earlier after gaining 2.2 percent in January, according to the median estimate of 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The National Bureau of Statistics will release figures at 10 a.m. Tuesday. China's inflation is being driven by rising food costs, raising concern the extra burden will stir social unrest in the countryside, where the average income is 3,587 yuan ($463) a year. Central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan may raise interest rates to prevent consumer price increases breaching a 3 percent annual target. "Low-income households are hurt most by rising food prices," said Ha Jiming, chief economist at China International Capital Corp. in Beijing. "The central bank should raise rates if the January and February combined inflation number is above 2.5 percent." Economists expect the central bank to raise the one-year benchmark lending rate from 6.12 percent in the first half, according to a separate survey in January. Wholesale grain prices jumped 9.2 percent in January from a year earlier, according to the central bank. Food costs, which account for a third of the consumer price index, are soaring as farmland shrinks and a growing and more affluent population pushes demand higher. Wheat, Farmers The central bank will put 5 billion yuan into credit cooperatives in major grain-producing regions to boost lending to farmers, the People's Bank of China said last month, without giving a timetable. The government sold 556,670 tons of wheat on March 1 and 601,817 tons on March 8 to manage prices. Kweichow Moutai Co., a liquor maker based in the southern province of Guizhou,, raised prices 12 percent this month. China's economy grew 10.7 percent last year, the fastest pace since 1995. A trade surplus that reached a record US$177.5 billion in 2006 is flooding the financial system with cash. At the annual meeting of the National People's Congress, Premier Wen Jiabao last week pledged measures to further rein in lending and investment, seeking to curb inflation, asset bubbles, and investment in factories that won't be needed in an economic slowdown. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell 9.2 percent on Feb. 27, the biggest one-day rout in 10 years, after rising 2 1/2 times in value in the previous year. Money Supply China's money supply probably grew 16.3 percent in February from a year earlier, the Bloomberg News survey showed, after increasing 15.9 percent in January. That's more than the 16 percent annual target of the People's Bank of China. The central bank may release money-supply figures as early as Monday. "The central bank needs to raise interest rates and control the huge amount of money we have in China," said Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist at China Galaxy Securities Co. in Beijing. "Borrowing costs are too cheap and that could leave China with a lot of risks." The People's Bank on Feb. 16 ordered lenders to set aside more money as reserves for the fifth time in eight months. It raised interest rates twice last year. The central bank also sells bills to remove money from the financial system. Producer prices likely rose 3.4 percent in February from a year earlier, the Bloomberg News survey showed, after gaining 3.3 percent in January. The National Bureau of Statistics will release the figures at 10 a.m. Monday. The following tables show economists' estimates for percentage changes in China's consumer and producer prices and M2 money supply in February from a year earlier. (For more biz stories, please visit Industry Updates) |
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