In the face of China's rapid economic development, people have a wide range
of opinions about "the rise of China." Some believe China is already a risen
power, others think it is in the course of rising and while some dismiss the
"China rise" as sheer overstatement.
In my opinion, the crux of argument lies in the time frame of "China's rise."
Questions should be asked: When did China's emerging process begin and when will
the process be completed? Has the country already fulfilled its "rise"?
Those who embrace the "China rise" theory offer their reasons: The country's
economy ranked fifth largest in the world in 2005, with its GDP standing at
US$2,710 billion compared with US$200 billion in 1978, though its per capita GDP
was just US$1,591, ranking behind more than 100 other nations.
The economy has kept an average 9.6 per cent growth each of the past 28
years, which is rarely seen in world economic development history.
The process of China's emerging as a major player in the world economic
arena, in the view of this group of people, seems to have started in the late
1970s when the country embarked on the road of reform and opening up. It is by
no means easy for a large country with a population of 1.3 billion to maintain
such a fast growth rate for 28 years in a row. It should be kept in mind that
Japan, a country with a much smaller populace, 100 million, managed to maintain
the fast development momentum for less than two decades in the 1950s and 60s.
But some people think otherwise. They argue that China's 2005 GDP share in
the world total stood at only 5 per cent compared with its 4.9 per-cent share in
1955. In contrast, Japan's share in 1955 was merely 2.5 per cent, though
groundwork had been done by then for the future take-off. Japan's GDP proportion
in the global total, however, reached 10 per cent in 1980, though its population
was only one-10th China's.
In the same year, China contributed a 2.5 per cent slice to the world's total
GDP, as a result of the harm done by the catastrophic "cultural revolution
(1966-76)."
Japan had grasped the golden opportunity offered by the world technological
and industrial revolutions during that time while China missed it, which can be
blamed on its "building socialism with the door shut" and on the "cultural
revolution."
Although Japan's fast growth in the 1950s and 60s relied tremendously on
heavy industry, the country later went in for high-tech and, as a result, smart
Japanese cars, televisions, cameras and audio products started inundating
markets the world over. Hence the name "the factory of the world."
Japan may be parasitic in breakthroughs made in basic research, but they are
strong in technical innovation to make their products marketable and
competitive.
Now China is also called "the factory of the world." Its advantages lie
largely in labour-intensive industries, which are in the middle stream of the
chain of production, leaving the upper-stream links, such as research and
development of new products, and down-stream ones, which mean the capability of
tapping the world market, to the care of foreign corporations.
At present, half of China's exports are contributed by joint ventures and
foreign-funded companies. So, it is better to call the country "the workshop of
the world" rather than "the factory of the world."
Compared with Japan, the real "factory of the world," China is still far
short of its emergence as a world-class player. Moreover, the country's per
capita GDP is only one-13th that of the United Sates and one-20th that of Japan.
Even the per capita GDP of the Republic of Korea is more than 10 fold that of
China.
China, growing fast economically, spent 28 years since 1978 restoring 5 per
cent GDP share in the world economy. Optimistic estimates put the size of the
Chinese economy at 30 per cent of the world's total by 2030, exceeding the share
of Japan and approaching the United States'. By then the country could live up
to the name of "a risen power."
About 70 per cent of overseas capital pouring into China comes from the East
Asian region, including Japan. This indicates that China's emergence as an
economic power is closely associated with the development of East Asia, with
each side being indispensable to the other. In view of this, Japan is now
presented with two strategic options. One is co-operation with China, which
automatically contributes to the rise of East Asia as a whole. The other is
thwarting China's development, which would ultimately ruin the rise of East
Asia.
In military terms, the Chinese military forces lag far behind the US military
not only in sheer numbers of sophisticated weapons but also in technological
level and the level of military strategic planning and operation.
It is hard to imagine that the Chinese military would be able to catch up
with its US counterpart in strategic deterrent capability and in conventional
combating power in the decades to come. Moreover, excessive eagerness to catch
up would go overboard. The former Soviet Union offered a good lesson in this
respect.
In short, China is currently at the starting point of its rise to the status
of a world-class power.
In the face of bottlenecks of environmental pollution, resource shortages and
a heavy population burden, it will be fairly hard for the country to maintain
the fast growth momentum in the coming 24 years. It is therefore predicted that
the goal will be fulfilled several decades later.
Fortunately, the nation is presented with important strategic opportunities
right now. Led by information technology, energy saving, new energy resources,
environmental and biological technologies are powering a new round of technical
and industrial revolution. It is obvious that sticking to reform and opening up
and seizing the opportunity offered by the new technical and industrial
revolution constitutes the pre-condition for the rise of China. This time, we
should not miss the golden opportunity.
Most important of all, peaceful international environs should be maintained
at all costs. Wars only serve to kill development and prosperity. The Iran-Iraq
War in the 1980s. for example, set back the economies of the warring parties
several decades. There is only one way for the rise of China sticking to the
road of peaceful development.
The author is a researcher from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
(China Daily 03/03/2006 page4)